Match SC Braga vs Estoril May 3, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.78 — +8.5% better than the market.

SC Braga enters this clash with clear home momentum, boasting a solid defensive edge and a recent run of strong results. Their offensive pressure should challenge Estoril’s less resilient backline, especially given Estoril’s current poor form. Braga’s home advantage and tactical discipline could limit Estoril’s attacking threat, while the pace hints at a moderately open game with chances on both ends.

Braga’s defensive solidity vs Estoril’s weaker attack
Home form advantage and recent momentum
Moderate tempo likely to favor Braga’s compact block

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.78 ✗ Lost

AI 61% Implied 56% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

📊 Statistics

BRA 1 – 1 EST

50%

Possession (%)

50%

0.41

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.89

10

Total Shots

10

3

Shots on Target

4

3

Shots off Target

3

7

Shots Inside Box

5

Corner Kicks

4

0

Offsides

2

15

Fouls

10

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

3

Yellow Cards

3

Goalkeeper Saves

2

⏱ Match events

16 · 1 – 1

Mario Dorgeles

Assist · Rodrigo Zalazar · 1–0

⚽

23'

Gabriel Moscardo

Yellow Card

▮

29'

36'

▮

Xeka

Yellow Card

Demir Ege Tıknaz

Yellow Card

▮

38'

45+1'

▮

Felix Bacher

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 0

Luís Pinto ↓ · Rodrigo Zalazar ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

50'

▮

Ferro

Yellow Card

54'

⇄

André Lacximicant ↓ · Ferro ↑

Substitution 1

Fran Navarro ↓ · Amine El Ouazzani ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

Paulo Oliveira ↓ · João Moutinho ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

70'

⇄

Gonçalo Costa ↓ · Pedro Amaral ↑

Substitution 2

79'

⚽

Yanis Begraoui

Assist · Ricard Sánchez · 1–1

80'

⇄

Peixinho ↓ · Rafik Guitane ↑

Substitution 3

80'

⇄

Alejandro Marqués ↓ · Yanis Begraoui ↑

Substitution 4

81'

⇄

Pedro Carvalho ↓ · Ricard Sánchez ↑

Substitution 5

Luís Pinto

Yellow Card

▮

90+2'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

SC Braga and Estoril drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–0.

For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: Mario Dorgeles (23'), Yanis Begraoui (79').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.44 units (Brier 0.192).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.78	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.64	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.50	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.67	—	57%	Cashed	+0.67	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.38	—	39%	Cashed	+1.38	Cashed
BTTS No	2.14	—	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.11	—	39%	Cashed	+1.11	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.17	—	87%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.53	—	61%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.32	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.03	—	95%	Cashed	+0.03	Cashed
Draw	4.50	—	22%	Cashed	+3.50	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.17	—	82%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Under 1.5	5.00	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	15.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.61	—	13%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.30	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.44u	−8% ROI