Match Brighton vs Nottingham Forest March 1, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 4.02 — +12.9% better than the market.

Brighton holds a clear quality edge and home momentum despite mixed recent form. Their strong defensive setup at Amex Stadium should challenge Nottingham Forest’s less potent attack. Brighton’s pressing and compact block could limit Forest’s chances, while the visitors’ defensive vulnerabilities might be exploited on the break.

Home side’s defensive solidity vs away’s modest offense
Brighton’s home edge in tactical discipline
Moderate pace expected, favoring structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 4.02 ✗ Lost

AI 28% Implied 25% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BRI 4-2-3-1 · NOT 4-2-3-1

BRI · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · NOT

18 Welbeck ⚽

Subs used · BRI

71'

Veltman ↑ ·

Wieffer ↓

86'

March ↑ ·

Gomez ↓

86'

Baleba ↑ ·

Milner ↓

90+1'

De Cuyper ↑ ·

Mitoma ↓

Subs used · NOT

56'

Cunha ↑ ·

Hutchinson ↓

56'

Netz ↑ ·

Williams ↓

74'

Bakwa ↑ ·

Hudson-Odoi ↓

82'

Ndoye ↑ ·

Aina ↓

83'

Awoniyi ↑ ·

Jesus ↓

📊 Statistics

BRI 2 – 1 NOT

53%

Possession (%)

47%

1.31

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.93

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 2 – 1

D. Gomez

Assist · P. Gross · 1–0

⚽

13'

⚽

M. Gibbs-White

Assist · Igor Jesus · 1–1

D. Welbeck

Assist · J. Hinshelwood · 2–1

⚽

15'

30'

▮

Elliot Anderson

Yellow Card

Half-time · 2 – 1

Mats Wieffer

Yellow Card

▮

55'

56'

⇄

Cunha ↓ · O. Hutchinson ↑

Substitution 1

56'

⇄

L. Netz ↓ · N. Williams ↑

Substitution 2

J. Veltman ↓ · M. Wieffer ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

71'

74'

⇄

D. Bakwa ↓ · C. Hudson-Odoi ↑

Substitution 3

82'

⇄

D. Ndoye ↓ · O. Aina ↑

Substitution 4

83'

⇄

T. Awoniyi ↓ · Igor Jesus ↑

Substitution 5

Kaoru Mitoma

Yellow Card

▮

84'

S. March ↓ · D. Gomez ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

86'

C. Baleba ↓ · J. Milner ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

86'

M. De Cuyper ↓ · K. Mitoma ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90+1'

Lewis Dunk

Yellow Card

▮

90+3'

Full-time · 2 – 1

Match recap

Brighton beat Nottingham Forest 2–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–1.

At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: D. Gomez (6'), M. Gibbs-White (13'), D. Welbeck (15').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.62 units (Brier 0.129).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.15	—	55%	Cashed	+1.15	Cashed
BTTS No	2.23	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.06	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.89	—	47%	Cashed	+0.89	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.70	—	50%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.79	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.60	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.42	—	74%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.02	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.34	—	79%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.55	—	55%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.10	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.80	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.06	—	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.75	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.27	—	72%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Away Win	3.60	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.62u	−27% ROI