Match Nacional vs Estrela April 4, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 3.45 — +9.9% better than the market.

Nacional hosts Estrela in a Primeira Liga clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge and better recent form. Nacional’s defensive solidity faces a probing Estrela attack, but home momentum is lacking given their recent struggles. The match hints at a cautious tempo, with both sides showing signs of compact defensive setups.

Estrela’s pressing edge could exploit Nacional’s fragile form.
Home defensive resilience vs away offensive intent.
Moderate pace expected, favoring tactical discipline over open play.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 3.45 ✗ Lost

AI 32% Implied 29% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

NAC 4-3-3 · EST 4-3-3

NAC · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · EST

11 Bóia ⚽

Subs used · NAC

49'

Junior ↑ ·

Baeza ↓

77'

Soares ↑ ·

Liziero ↓

77'

Vallier ↑ ·

Gomes ↓

89'

Goncalves ↑ ·

Veron ↓

Subs used · EST

46'

Moustier ↑ ·

Sola ↓

46'

Jovane ↑ ·

Stoica ↓

74'

van Hooijdonk ↑ ·

Doue ↓

75'

Encada ↑ ·

Langa ↓

85'

Antonetti ↑ ·

Pinho ↓

📊 Statistics

NAC 2 – 0 EST

49%

Possession (%)

51%

0.99

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.50

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

77%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

18 · 2 – 0

▮

Luan Patrick

Yellow Card

J. Ramirez

1–0

⚽

16'

▮

Rodrigo Pinho

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

⇄

T. Moustier ↓ · A. Sola ↑

Substitution 1

46'

⇄

Jovane ↓ · I. Stoica ↑

Substitution 2

Léo Santos

Yellow Card

▮

45+3'

Daniel Junior ↓ · M. Baeza ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

49'

Paulinho Boia

Assist · Leo Santos · 2–0

⚽

71'

74'

⇄

S. van Hooijdonk ↓ · G. Doue ↑

Substitution 3

75'

⇄

J. Encada ↓ · B. Langa ↑

Substitution 4

F. Soares ↓ · Liziero ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

77'

L. Vallier ↓ · Jose Gomes ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

77'

Alan Núñez

Yellow Card

▮

78'

81'

▮

Jefferson Encada

Yellow Card

85'

⇄

L. Antonetti ↓ · Rodrigo Pinho ↑

Substitution 5

Daniel Júnior

Yellow Card

▮

86'

C. Goncalves ↓ · Gabriel Veron ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

89'

Paulinho Bóia

Yellow Card

▮

90+6'

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Nacional beat Estrela 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 11, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: J. Ramirez (2'), Paulinho Boia (71').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.56 units (Brier 0.149).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	1.86	—	58%	Cashed	+0.86	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.83	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.00	—	53%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.72	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.09	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.86	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.08	—	42%	Cashed	+1.08	Cashed
Away Win	3.80	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.45	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.30	—	67%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.32	—	78%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.50	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.07	—	89%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.47	—	42%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.34	—	68%	Cashed	+0.34	Cashed
Draw	3.55	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.60	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.56u	−27% ROI