Match Tondela vs AVS March 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 0.5 at 9.00 — +12.7% better than the market.

Tondela holds a clear quality edge and home momentum with a solid defensive setup that could frustrate AVS. Despite AVS's slightly better recent form, Tondela's home comfort and defensive discipline suggest a tight contest with limited goals. The match likely leans towards a controlled pace, favoring Tondela's compact block and set-piece threat.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive pressure
Recent form favors AVS but home edge balances
Moderate tempo hints at fewer scoring chances

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 0.5

Under 0.5 @ 9.00 ✓ Cashed

AI 13% Implied 11% +8.00u

+800%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

TON 5-4-1 · AVS 4-3-3

TON · 5-4-1 4-3-3 · AVS

23 Mbunga-Kimpioka

Subs used · TON

68'

Siebatcheu ↑ ·

Silva ↓

74'

Sithole ↑ ·

Tavares ↓

88'

Maviram ↑ ·

Conceicao ↓

88'

van der Heide ↑ ·

Bebeto ↓

89'

Ouattara ↑ ·

Aiko ↓

Subs used · AVS

29'

Galletto ↑ ·

Roni ↓

65'

Duarte ↑ ·

Green ↓

65'

Akinsola ↑ ·

Perea ↓

85'

Nene ↑ ·

Tomane ↓

85'

Kiki ↑ ·

Rivas ↓

📊 Statistics

TON 0 – 0 AVS

60%

Possession (%)

40%

0.64

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.80

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 0 – 0

22'

▮

Carlos Ponck

Yellow Card

29'

⇄

T. Galletto ↓ · Roni ↑

Substitution 1

31'

▮

Tiago Galletto

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

65'

⇄

D. Duarte ↓ · A. Green ↑

Substitution 2

65'

⇄

T. Akinsola ↓ · O. Perea ↑

Substitution 3

J. Siebatcheu ↓ · J. Silva ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

68'

S. Sithole ↓ · H. Tavares ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

85'

⇄

Nene ↓ · Tomane ↑

Substitution 4

85'

⇄

Kiki ↓ · D. Rivas ↑

Substitution 5

E. Maviram ↓ · R. Conceicao ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

88'

A. van der Heide ↓ · Bebeto ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

M. Ouattara ↓ · M. Aiko ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

89'

Full-time · 0 – 0

Match recap

Tondela and AVS drew 0–0. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 60% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 84% of their passes. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 9, 3 on target.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +6.99 units (Brier 0.277).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.94	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.78	—	62%	Cashed	+0.78	Cashed
BTTS No	1.87	—	58%	Cashed	+0.87	Cashed
BTTS Yes	2.00	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.97	—	42%	Cashed	+0.97	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.13	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.25	—	36%	Cashed	+2.25	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.29	—	81%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.25	—	83%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.38	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	9.00	—	13%	Cashed	+8.00	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.08	—	87%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.58	—	25%	Cashed	+2.58	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.38	—	64%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.14	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.80	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.33	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+6.99u	+41% ROI