Match Alverca vs Estrela January 31, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 2.20 — +14.1% better than the market.

Alverca holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a modest home momentum, showing better recent form and a tighter defensive setup compared to Estrela. The home side's defensive solidity could stifle Estrela's attack, which has struggled to convert chances away. Expect a cautious tempo with a leaning towards a compact block from Alverca, aiming to control the game and capitalize on set-pieces.

Home defensive resilience vs away attack
Recent form favors Alverca
Moderate pace suggested by odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 2.20 ✗ Lost

AI 52% Implied 45% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ALV 3-4-3 · EST 3-1-4-2

ALV · 3-4-3 3-1-4-2 · EST

10 Chiquinho

Subs used · ALV

17'

Moreira ↑ ·

Abdulai ↓

69'

Nuozzi ↑ ·

Chiquinho ↓

69'

Clairicia ↑ ·

Marezi ↓

84'

Gui ↑ ·

Meupiyou ↓

84'

Garcia ↑ ·

Figueiredo ↓

Subs used · EST

53'

Meireles ↑ ·

Sola ↓

53'

Doue ↑ ·

Moustier ↓

62'

Kalley ↑ ·

Stoica ↓

76'

Robinho ↑ ·

Pinho ↓

76'

van Hooijdonk ↑ ·

Antonetti ↓

📊 Statistics

ALV 1 – 1 EST

57%

Possession (%)

43%

0.89

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.88

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 1

10'

▮

Paulo Moreira

Yellow Card

V. Moreira ↓ · S. Abdulai ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

17'

Half-time · 0 – 0

53'

⇄

J. Meireles ↓ · A. Sola ↑

Substitution 1

53'

⇄

G. Doue ↓ · T. Moustier ↑

Substitution 2

62'

⇄

Y. Kalley ↓ · I. Stoica ↑

Substitution 3

64'

▮

Yahya Kalley

Yellow Card

Vasco Moreira

Yellow Card

▮

66'

C. Nuozzi ↓ · Chiquinho ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

69'

M. Clairicia ↓ · Marezi ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

69'

76'

⇄

Robinho ↓ · Rodrigo Pinho ↑

Substitution 4

76'

⇄

S. van Hooijdonk ↓ · L. Antonetti ↑

Substitution 5

81'

⚽

S. van Hooijdonk (P)

Penalty · 0–1

D. Gui ↓ · B. Meupiyou ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

84'

F. Garcia ↓ · Figueiredo ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

84'

F. Garcia

Assist · Lincoln · 1–1

⚽

87'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Alverca and Estrela drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 57% of the ball. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: S. van Hooijdonk (81'), F. Garcia (87').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.14 units (Brier 0.162).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.20	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.87	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.71	—	59%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.24	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.96	—	45%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.78	—	48%	Cashed	+0.78	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.67	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.30	—	79%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.10	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.42	—	67%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.53	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.25	—	79%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	89%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Under 0.5	9.00	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.35	—	27%	Cashed	+2.35	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.20	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.74	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.14u	−18% ROI