Match Nacional vs Moreirense October 4, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 1.65 — +7.3% better than the market.

Nacional vs Moreirense — betting preview

This sets up as a measured, defense-first matchup. Nacional’s home edge looks modest, while Moreirense carry the stronger overall profile and steadier away form. Expect controlled chance quality and long stretches of chess-like play — unders and protective away angles screen as the clearest paths. Secondary angles: the draw remains live in a tight game state, and the away win is fairly priced if you want more upside.

Main risks: an early goal flipping the script; set-piece volatility.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 1.65 ✗ Lost

AI 65% Implied 61% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

NAC 4-2-3-1 · MOR 4-3-3

NAC · 4-2-3-1 4-3-3 · MOR

9 Ramirez ⚽

Subs used · NAC

76'

Soares ↑ ·

Labidi ↓

81'

Witi ↑ ·

Ruan ↓

90+1'

Sousa ↑ ·

Liziero ↓

Subs used · MOR

70'

Bernardo ↑ ·

Alanzinho ↓

70'

Batista ↑ ·

Bondoso ↓

70'

Landerson ↑ ·

Maranhao ↓

85'

Teguia ↑ ·

Travassos ↓

📊 Statistics

NAC 3 – 2 MOR

58%

Possession (%)

42%

2.73

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.09

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

82%

Pass Accuracy (%)

77%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 3 – 2

⚽

V. Sousa

Assist · D. Pinto · 0–1

15'

▮

Maracás

Yellow Card

J. Ramirez (P)

Penalty · 1–1

⚽

21'

30'

▮

Yan Maranhão

Yellow Card

Half-time · 1 – 1

Ze Vitor

Yellow Card

▮

50'

56'

⚽

Kiko

Assist · Yan Maranhao · 1–2

Leo Santos

Assist · Liziero · 2–2

⚽

59'

62'

▮

Vasco Sousa

Red Card

70'

⇄

Bernardo ↓ · Alanzinho ↑

Substitution 1

70'

⇄

G. Batista ↓ · Kiko Bondoso ↑

Substitution 2

70'

⇄

Landerson ↓ · Yan Maranhao ↑

Substitution 3

72'

▮

Mateja Stjepanović

Yellow Card

F. Soares ↓ · C. Labidi ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

76'

Witi ↓ · Pablo Ruan ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

81'

J. Ramirez (P)

Penalty · 3–2

⚽

84'

85'

⇄

C. Teguia ↓ · Travassos ↑

Substitution 4

A. Sousa ↓ · Liziero ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

90+1'

Full-time · 3 – 2

Match recap

Nacional beat Moreirense 3–2 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.73 to 2.09. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 10, 7 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: V. Sousa (4'), J. Ramirez (21'), Kiko (56'), Leo Santos (59'), J. Ramirez (84'). Vasco Sousa was sent off in the 62' minute.

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 1 landed and 6 missed, for a net -4.60 units (Brier 0.304).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 1 W · 6 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.63	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.30	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Team Total Under 0.5	3.35	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.65	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.88	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.35	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.40	—	31%	Cashed	+1.40	Cashed
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	1 W · 6 L	−4.60u	−66% ROI