Match PSV Eindhoven vs Bayern München January 28, 2026 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Wed 28 Jan · 20:00
1:2
Full-time
Philips Stadion · Eindhoven
Referee Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
Miss
Over 3.5
Over 3.5
AI 56% · book 1.89
✗
Miss
Draw
Draw
AI 31% · book 4.80
✗
Miss
Double Chance 1X
Double Chance 1X
AI 54% · book 2.45
✗
xG (open play)
0.69 – 1.82
Δ −1.13
AI accuracy
8 / 13
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Over 3.5 at 1.89 — +6.0% better than the market.
At the Philips Stadion, this shapes up as a high-tempo game where Bayern look better equipped to control the key phases. PSV can carry threat at home and have enough quality to score, but Bayern’s sharper attacking patterns and calmer game management give them the clearer route to three points. PSV’s best path is to keep it open and trade punches, yet Bayern should still produce the cleaner chances overall. A home upset isn’t impossible in a lively contest, but it would likely need PSV to be ruthless in the big moments.
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Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5
Over 3.5 @ 1.89
✗ Lost
AI 56%
Implied 53%
−1.00u
⛀ Lineups
PSV 4-4-2 · BAY 4-2-3-1
📊 Statistics
PSV 1
– 2 BAY
0.69
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.82
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
Match recap
Bayern München won 2–1 away at PSV Eindhoven. At half-time it was 0–0.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.82 to 0.69. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 17 shots to 13, 8 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 13 graded markets, 8 landed and 5 missed, for a net -1.88 units (Brier 0.153).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
13 · 8 W · 5 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Over 3.5 |
1.89 |
— |
56% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Draw |
4.80 |
— |
31% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance 1X |
2.45 |
— |
54% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Home Win |
5.40 |
— |
24% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.34 |
— |
74% |
Cashed |
+0.34 |
Cashed
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.02 |
— |
96% |
Cashed |
+0.02 |
Cashed
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.11 |
— |
88% |
Cashed |
+0.11 |
Cashed
|
| BTTS No |
3.05 |
— |
32% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.41 |
— |
68% |
Cashed |
+0.41 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance X2 |
1.21 |
— |
77% |
Cashed |
+0.21 |
Cashed
|
| Under 3.5 |
2.07 |
— |
44% |
Cashed |
+1.07 |
Cashed
|
| Away Win |
1.69 |
— |
46% |
Cashed |
+0.69 |
Cashed
|
| AH Away 0 |
1.27 |
— |
46% |
Cashed |
+0.27 |
Cashed
|
| Total · 13 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 5 L |
−1.88u |
−14% ROI |
