Match Bayer Leverkusen vs Villarreal January 28, 2026 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Wed 28 Jan · 20:00
3:0
Full-time
BayArena · Leverkusen
Referee Espen Eskas, Norway
Hit
Over 2.5
Over 2.5
AI 61% · book 1.64
✓
Miss
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 55% · book 2.54
✗
Miss
Draw
Draw
AI 30% · book 4.57
✗
xG (open play)
2.03 – 0.25
Δ +1.78
AI accuracy
8 / 14
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
This matchup at the BayArena looks far closer than a typical home-favourite spot. Both sides arrive with the same recent return, and the overall profile points to a game that can swing on a few key moments rather than sustained dominance. Leverkusen have the home backing, but Villarreal’s recent uptick and sharper cutting edge make them a genuine threat, especially if they can keep the game compact and strike on transitions. Goals look likely, and the away side have a realistic route to come away with something.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
⛀ Lineups
BAY 3-4-2-1 · VIL 4-4-2
📊 Statistics
BAY 3
– 0 VIL
2.03
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.25
93%
Pass Accuracy (%)
86%
Match recap
Bayer Leverkusen beat Villarreal 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 65% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.03 to 0.25. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 5, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 4 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 14 graded markets, 8 landed and 6 missed, for a net -2.31 units (Brier 0.175).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
14 · 8 W · 6 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.64 |
— |
61% |
Cashed |
+0.64 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance X2 |
2.54 |
— |
55% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Draw |
4.57 |
— |
30% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Away Win |
6.00 |
— |
25% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.04 |
— |
95% |
Cashed |
+0.04 |
Cashed
|
| Over 3.5 |
2.47 |
— |
40% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.20 |
— |
82% |
Cashed |
+0.20 |
Cashed
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.68 |
— |
58% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.46 |
— |
39% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.25 |
— |
42% |
Cashed |
+1.25 |
Cashed
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.57 |
— |
60% |
Cashed |
+0.57 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.17 |
— |
75% |
Cashed |
+0.17 |
Cashed
|
| Home Win |
1.60 |
— |
45% |
Cashed |
+0.60 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home 0 |
1.22 |
— |
45% |
Cashed |
+0.22 |
Cashed
|
| Total · 14 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 6 L |
−2.31u |
−16% ROI |
