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Home World UEFA Champions League Marseille — Liverpool

Predictions Marseille vs Liverpool January 21, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Marseille
Marseille
Home · last 5 L W W L L
Kick-off
Wed 21 Jan · 20:00
0:3
Full-time
Liverpool
Liverpool
W L W L L Away · last 5
Orange Vélodrome · Marseille Referee Slavko Vinčić, Slovenia
VALUE
Home Win · MAR
45%
Best 3.68
Draw
28%
Best 3.83
Away Win · LIV
27%
Best 1.95
Value pick
Draw
@ 4.00
Fair odds
3.57
book 4.00 · +10.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 28% · EV +10.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (45%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Value pick
Probability 45%
Odds 3.95
Show model details
Implied probability 25.3%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 28%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 27%
Odds 1.95
Show model details
Implied probability 51.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 60%
Odds 1.68
Show model details
Implied probability 59.5%
Bet quality Medium
Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 96%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality High
Over 3.5
Probability 39%
Odds 2.55
Show model details
Implied probability 39.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 82%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality High
Under 2.5
Probability 40%
Odds 2.38
Show model details
Implied probability 42%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 61%
Odds 1.55
Show model details
Implied probability 64.5%
Bet quality Medium
Under 1.5
Probability 18%
Odds 5.00
Show model details
Implied probability 20%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4%
Odds 17.00
Show model details
Implied probability 5.9%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 42%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 58%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Medium
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Value pick
Probability 62.5%
Odds 2.85
Show model details
Implied probability 35.1%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 37.5%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Value pick
Probability 73%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality High
Double Chance X2
Probability 55%
Odds 1.30
Show model details
Implied probability 76.9%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
MAR – LIV @ 4.00
+10.0%
Edge
Forecast →