Match Marseille vs Liverpool January 21, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 4.00 — +10.0% better than the market.

Marseille at the Orange Vélodrome should make this intense and emotional, with strong home pressure and a lively tempo. Liverpool have the tools to stay composed in transitions and create chances on the break, but the game script still leans toward a tight contest where Marseille’s home edge and momentum can matter. Goals are plausible, yet the match can still swing on small moments rather than one-way traffic.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Draw

Draw @ 4.00 ✗ Lost

AI 28% Implied 25% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MAR 4-4-2 · LIV 4-2-2-2

MAR · 4-4-2 4-2-2-2 · LIV

9 Gouiri

📊 Statistics

MAR 0 – 3 LIV

58%

Possession (%)

42%

0.88

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.49

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Liverpool won 3–0 away at Marseille. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.49 to 0.88. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 11, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 7 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. In front of goal, the visitors were clinical, scoring 3 from 1.49 expected goals.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.38 units (Brier 0.217).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
AH Home 0	2.85	—	63%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.95	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.96	—	73%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.00	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.45	—	42%	Cashed	+1.45	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.68	—	60%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	96%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.55	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.21	—	82%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.38	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.55	—	61%	Cashed	+0.55	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.00	—	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	17.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.30	—	55%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.44	—	38%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Away Win	1.95	—	27%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.38u	−26% ROI