Match Newcastle vs PSV Eindhoven January 21, 2026 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Wed 21 Jan · 20:00
3:0
Full-time
St. James' Park · Newcastle upon Tyne
Referee Daniel Siebert, Germany
Hit
Under 3.5
Under 3.5
AI 56% · book 1.91
✓
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 42% · book 6.50
✗
Miss
AH Away 0
AH Away 0
AI 42% · book 4.65
✗
xG (open play)
2.52 – 0.34
Δ +2.18
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.91 — +10.0% better than the market.
Newcastle have the home crowd behind them at St. James' Park, but PSV look like the more complete side right now, with stronger momentum and a higher overall level across the pitch. Newcastle can still make this uncomfortable in spells, yet PSV should create the cleaner chances and are better placed to avoid defeat. With both teams carrying attacking threat, goals are likely, but the away side’s structure gives them the safer path to a result.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.91
✓ Cashed
AI 56%
Implied 52%
+0.91u
⛀ Lineups
NEW 4-3-3 · PSV 4-2-3-1
📊 Statistics
NEW 3
– 0 PSV
2.52
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.34
79%
Pass Accuracy (%)
81%
Match recap
Newcastle beat PSV Eindhoven 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.
On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.52 to 0.34. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 11 shots to 6, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -5.24 units (Brier 0.193).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
17 · 8 W · 9 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.91 |
— |
56% |
Cashed |
+0.91 |
Cashed
|
| Away Win |
6.50 |
— |
42% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away 0 |
4.65 |
— |
42% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance X2 |
2.89 |
— |
67% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Draw |
5.38 |
— |
25% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 1.5 |
7.50 |
— |
16% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 2.5 |
3.10 |
— |
34% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.50 |
— |
42% |
Cashed |
+1.50 |
Cashed
|
| Under 0.5 |
26.00 |
— |
4% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.02 |
— |
96% |
Cashed |
+0.02 |
Cashed
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.12 |
— |
84% |
Cashed |
+0.12 |
Cashed
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.40 |
— |
66% |
Cashed |
+0.40 |
Cashed
|
| Over 3.5 |
2.09 |
— |
44% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.55 |
— |
58% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.15 |
— |
58% |
Cashed |
+0.15 |
Cashed
|
| Home Win |
1.48 |
— |
33% |
Cashed |
+0.48 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home 0 |
1.18 |
— |
33% |
Cashed |
+0.18 |
Cashed
|
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 9 L |
−5.24u |
−31% ROI |
