Match Galatasaray vs Atletico Madrid January 21, 2026 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Wed 21 Jan · 17:45
1:1
Full-time
Referee Istvan Kovacs, Romania
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 46% · book 2.12
✗
Hit
Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2
AI 72% · book 1.39
✓
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 63% · book 1.50
✓
xG (open play)
0.50 – 1.43
Δ −0.93
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.68 — +4.0% better than the market.
Galatasaray should be strong at home and can make this a demanding night, but Atletico Madrid arrive with the steadier overall profile and a clearer path to avoid defeat. The game shape points to a competitive match where Atletico’s structure can limit chaos, while Galatasaray still have enough threat to create chances. Goals look more likely than not, yet the away side are better placed to come away with something.
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Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5
Under 3.5 @ 1.68
✓ Cashed
AI 62%
Implied 60%
+0.68u
⛀ Lineups
GAL 4-2-3-1 · ATM 4-4-2
📊 Statistics
GAL 1
– 1 ATM
0.50
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
1.43
82%
Pass Accuracy (%)
85%
Match recap
Galatasaray and Atletico Madrid drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–1.
In possession, the visitors ran the game with 55% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.43 to 0.50. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 7, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 4. For discipline, the referee produced 7 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.78 units (Brier 0.167).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
17 · 8 W · 9 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| Away Win |
2.12 |
— |
46% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance X2 |
1.39 |
— |
72% |
Cashed |
+0.39 |
Cashed
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.50 |
— |
63% |
Cashed |
+0.50 |
Cashed
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.55 |
— |
62% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.68 |
— |
62% |
Cashed |
+0.68 |
Cashed
|
| Draw |
4.00 |
— |
26% |
Cashed |
+3.00 |
Cashed
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.60 |
— |
38% |
Cashed |
+1.60 |
Cashed
|
| Over 3.5 |
2.38 |
— |
38% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.18 |
— |
79% |
Cashed |
+0.18 |
Cashed
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.03 |
— |
95% |
Cashed |
+0.03 |
Cashed
|
| Under 1.5 |
5.80 |
— |
21% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 0.5 |
19.00 |
— |
5% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.70 |
— |
37% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.84 |
— |
54% |
Cashed |
+0.84 |
Cashed
|
| Home Win |
3.65 |
— |
28% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Home 0 |
2.49 |
— |
28% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away 0 |
1.62 |
— |
46% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 9 L |
−1.78u |
−10% ROI |
