Match Real Madrid vs Monaco January 20, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks BTTS No at 2.20 — +10.0% better than the market.

Real Madrid should dictate the rhythm at the Santiago Bernabéu, with Monaco arriving out of form and likely spending long phases protecting their box. The hosts are better placed to create the clearer chances and keep control of territory, while Monaco’s best route is to stay compact and look for quick breaks. The match leans toward Madrid taking charge, with goals more likely than not, but without guaranteeing a runaway scoreline.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · BTTS No

BTTS No @ 2.20 ✗ Lost

AI 48% Implied 46% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

REA 4-3-3 · MON 4-2-3-1

REA · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · MON

7 Júnior

📊 Statistics

REA 6 – 1 MON

49%

Possession (%)

51%

4.00

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.50

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

87%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Real Madrid beat Monaco 6–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 4.00 to 1.50. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 25 shots to 20, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 6. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 6 from 4.00 expected goals.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -6.27 units (Brier 0.089).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.97	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	6.50	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.92	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.20	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	7.50	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	10.50	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.02	—	49%	Cashed	+1.02	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	—	97%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Under 2.5	3.25	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.12	—	86%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.08	—	90%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Under 0.5	27.00	—	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.38	—	70%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.70	—	52%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Home Win	1.31	—	71%	Cashed	+0.31	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.10	—	71%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
AH Away 0	7.00	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−6.27u	−37% ROI