Match Benfica vs Napoli December 10, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 3.65 — +9.0% better than the market.

Benfica and Napoli look quite evenly matched, with Benfica slightly stronger at home on underlying numbers while Napoli arrive in better recent form. The Portuguese side should see a bit more of the ball and create steady pressure, but Napoli’s direct attacks and set pieces remain a real threat. Goals are likely but not guaranteed to turn into a high-scoring shootout, with both teams having a decent chance to score and Benfica holding a small overall edge in front of their own fans.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 3.65 ✗ Lost

AI 30% Implied 27% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BEN 4-2-3-1 · NAP 3-4-2-1

BEN · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · NAP

9 Ivanović

📊 Statistics

BEN 2 – 0 NAP

40%

Possession (%)

60%

2.17

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.69

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

77%

Pass Accuracy (%)

84%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Benfica beat Napoli 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 60% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.17 to 0.69. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 13 shots to 9, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 6 to 2. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.71 units (Brier 0.160).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.66	—	60%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.65	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.08	—	95%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.85	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.65	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.72	—	58%	Cashed	+0.72	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.09	—	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.37	—	72%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.39	—	71%	Cashed	+0.39	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.35	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.41	—	41%	Cashed	+1.41	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.88	—	52%	Cashed	+0.88	Cashed
Away Win	3.28	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.39	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.12	—	45%	Cashed	+1.12	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.32	—	70%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Under 0.5	10.50	—	5%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.71u	−22% ROI