Match Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal November 25, 2025 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Tue 25 Nov · 20:00
4:0
Full-time
SIGNAL IDUNA PARK · Dortmund
Referee Davide Massa, Italy
Miss
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 60% · book 1.71
✗
Miss
Under 0.5
Under 0.5
AI 10% · book 15.00
✗
Miss
Under 1.5
Under 1.5
AI 30% · book 4.50
✗
xG (open play)
3.64 – 0.79
Δ +2.85
AI accuracy
8 / 17
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.04 — +14.0% better than the market.
Borussia Dortmund welcome Villarreal to Signal Iduna Park in a European clash between two sides who like to play proactive football. Dortmund carry strong home momentum and plenty of attacking firepower, while Villarreal arrive with solid domestic numbers but a more wasteful recent run in Europe. My Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal prediction expects an open contest with phases of pressure for both teams, a slight edge to the hosts in front of the Yellow Wall, and several interesting angles across goals, double chance and handicap markets.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2
Double Chance X2 @ 2.04
✗ Lost
AI 56%
Implied 49%
−1.00u
⛀ Lineups
DOR 3-4-2-1 · VIL 4-4-2
📊 Statistics
DOR 4
– 0 VIL
3.64
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.79
91%
Pass Accuracy (%)
80%
Match recap
Borussia Dortmund beat Villarreal 4–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.
In possession, the hosts ran the game with 67% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 91% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.64 to 0.79.
Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.32 units (Brier 0.196).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
17 · 8 W · 9 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.71 |
— |
60% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 0.5 |
15.00 |
— |
10% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 1.5 |
4.50 |
— |
30% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Away Win |
4.33 |
— |
29% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Draw |
4.05 |
— |
31% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance X2 |
2.04 |
— |
56% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 3.5 |
2.85 |
— |
37% |
Cashed |
+1.85 |
Cashed
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.79 |
— |
57% |
Cashed |
+0.79 |
Cashed
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.24 |
— |
81% |
Cashed |
+0.24 |
Cashed
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.05 |
— |
95% |
Cashed |
+0.05 |
Cashed
|
| AH Away 0 |
3.23 |
— |
30% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.18 |
— |
43% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.47 |
— |
63% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.23 |
— |
40% |
Cashed |
+1.23 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.26 |
— |
70% |
Cashed |
+0.26 |
Cashed
|
| Home Win |
1.88 |
— |
40% |
Cashed |
+0.88 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home 0 |
1.38 |
— |
47% |
Cashed |
+0.38 |
Cashed
|
| Total · 17 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
8 W · 9 L |
−3.32u |
−20% ROI |
