Match Ajax vs Benfica November 25, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 4.22 — +14.0% better than the market.

Ajax welcome Benfica to the Johan Cruijff Arena in a European clash that looks finely balanced. The hosts are more dangerous at home than recent scores suggest, while Benfica arrive with a slightly stronger defensive structure and good away form. My Ajax vs Benfica prediction expects a tight game with phases of control for both sides, a narrow edge for the Portuguese club on overall balance, and several viable betting angles across goals, double chance and Asian handicaps.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 4.22 ✗ Lost

AI 27% Implied 24% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

AJA 4-1-4-1 · BEN 4-2-3-1

AJA · 4-1-4-1 4-2-3-1 · BEN

25 Weghorst

📊 Statistics

AJA 0 – 2 BEN

62%

Possession (%)

38%

0.96

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.96

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Benfica won 2–0 away at Ajax. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 62% of the ball. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 11 shots to 7, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 10 to 4. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 7 landed and 10 missed, for a net -5.53 units (Brier 0.139).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 7 W · 10 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance 1X	2.00	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	4.22	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.60	—	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.47	—	74%	Cashed	+0.47	Cashed
Draw	3.88	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.20	—	48%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
Under 0.5	15.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.32	—	43%	Cashed	+1.32	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	—	93%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.66	—	57%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.24	—	76%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.27	—	73%	Cashed	+0.27	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.78	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home -1	7.30	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	1.92	—	45%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
AH Home 0	3.15	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.80	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 10 L	−5.53u	−33% ROI