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Home World UEFA Champions League Manchester City — Borussia Dortmund

Predictions Manchester City vs Borussia Dortmund November 5, 2025 — Predictions and Probabilities

Europe   /   UEFA Champions League Value pick inside
Manchester City
Manchester City
Home · last 5 W L W L L
Kick-off
Wed 05 Nov · 20:00
4:1
Full-time
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
D L L W L Away · last 5
Etihad Stadium · Manchester Referee Szymon Marciniak, Poland
Home Win · MCI
58%
Best 1.40
Draw
22%
Best 5.00
VALUE
Away Win · DOR
20%
Best 6.80
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.91
Fair odds
2.63
book 2.91 · +11.0% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 38% · EV +11.0%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (62%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Longshot value
Probability 20%
Odds 7.20
Show model details
Implied probability 13.9%
Bet quality Low
Draw Longshot value
Probability 22%
Odds 5.39
Show model details
Implied probability 18.6%
Bet quality Low
Home Win Top pick
Probability 58%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 8 markets
Under 0.5 Longshot value
Probability 7%
Odds 24.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5 Longshot value
Probability 22%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 38%
Odds 2.91
Show model details
Implied probability 34.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 56%
Odds 1.83
Show model details
Implied probability 54.6%
Bet quality Medium
Over 0.5 Top pick
Probability 93%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality High
Over 3.5
Probability 44%
Odds 2.14
Show model details
Implied probability 46.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 62%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality Medium
Over 1.5
Probability 78%
Odds 1.12
Show model details
Implied probability 89.3%
Bet quality High
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Top pick
Probability 60%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds 2.39
Show model details
Implied probability 41.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 7 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 20%
Odds 5.25
Show model details
Implied probability 19%
Bet quality Low
AH Home +1 Top pick
Probability 80%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality High
AH Home 0
Probability 58%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home -1
Probability 32%
Odds 1.64
Show model details
Implied probability 61%
Bet quality Low
AH Home -2
Probability 12%
Odds 3.01
Show model details
Implied probability 33.2%
Bet quality Low
AH Away -1
Probability 10%
Odds 2.36
Show model details
Implied probability 42.4%
Bet quality Low
AH Away -2
Probability 4%
Odds 1.41
Show model details
Implied probability 70.9%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 42%
Odds 3.05
Show model details
Implied probability 32.8%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 80%
Odds 1.13
Show model details
Implied probability 88.5%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
MCI – DOR @ 2.91
+11.0%
Edge
Forecast →