Match Manchester City vs Borussia Dortmund November 5, 2025 — Result and Stats
Kick-off
Wed 05 Nov · 20:00
4:1
Full-time
Etihad Stadium · Manchester
Referee Szymon Marciniak, Poland
Hit
BTTS Yes
BTTS Yes
AI 60% · book 1.62
✓
Miss
Under 0.5
Under 0.5
AI 7% · book 24.00
✗
Miss
Away Win
Away Win
AI 20% · book 7.20
✗
xG (open play)
1.94 – 0.94
Δ +1.00
AI accuracy
11 / 22
picks cashed
Post-match · 90 sec read
AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.91 — +11.0% better than the market.
Manchester City are stronger on balance and at home should control most phases. Expect chances at both ends, but City’s pressing and depth tilt the result their way. Safer angles lean to City not losing and a goals-friendly game.
P
Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded
Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5
Under 2.5 @ 2.91
✗ Lost
AI 38%
Implied 34%
−1.00u
⛀ Lineups
MCI 4-1-4-1 · DOR 3-4-2-1
📊 Statistics
MCI 4
– 1 DOR
1.94
Expected Goals (xG)
expected goals
0.94
87%
Pass Accuracy (%)
88%
Match recap
Manchester City beat Borussia Dortmund 4–1 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.
On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.94 to 0.94. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 12, 11 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 8 saves. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.94 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.
Model audit for this match: of 22 graded markets, 11 landed and 11 missed, for a net -5.24 units (Brier 0.151).
⚖ Bet recap · markets settled
22 · 11 W · 11 L
| Market |
Odds |
Closed |
AI |
Result |
P/L · 1u |
|
| BTTS Yes |
1.62 |
— |
60% |
Cashed |
+0.62 |
Cashed
|
| Under 0.5 |
24.00 |
— |
7% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Away Win |
7.20 |
— |
20% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 1.5 |
6.00 |
— |
22% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Double Chance X2 |
3.05 |
— |
42% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Draw |
5.39 |
— |
22% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 2.5 |
2.91 |
— |
38% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away 0 |
5.25 |
— |
20% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Under 3.5 |
1.83 |
— |
56% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| BTTS No |
2.39 |
— |
40% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Over 0.5 |
1.02 |
— |
93% |
Cashed |
+0.02 |
Cashed
|
| Over 3.5 |
2.14 |
— |
44% |
Cashed |
+1.14 |
Cashed
|
| Double Chance 1X |
1.13 |
— |
80% |
Cashed |
+0.13 |
Cashed
|
| Over 2.5 |
1.44 |
— |
62% |
Cashed |
+0.44 |
Cashed
|
| Over 1.5 |
1.12 |
— |
78% |
Cashed |
+0.12 |
Cashed
|
| Home Win |
1.45 |
— |
58% |
Cashed |
+0.45 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home +1 |
1.03 |
— |
80% |
Cashed |
+0.03 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home 0 |
1.16 |
— |
58% |
Cashed |
+0.16 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home -1 |
1.64 |
— |
32% |
Cashed |
+0.64 |
Cashed
|
| AH Home -2 |
3.01 |
— |
12% |
Cashed |
+2.01 |
Cashed
|
| AH Away -1 |
2.36 |
— |
10% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| AH Away -2 |
1.41 |
— |
4% |
Lost |
−1.00 |
Miss
|
| Total · 22 markets @ 1u each |
— |
— |
— |
11 W · 11 L |
−5.24u |
−24% ROI |
