Match Newcastle vs Athletic Club November 5, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.04 — +10.0% better than the market.

Newcastle’s home push and steadier five-game form tilt this evenly matched tie toward the hosts. Expect a measured tempo with long spells of midfield duels; a pragmatic card-free approach from Newcastle can keep the scoreline contained unless an early goal cracks it open.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.04 ✓ Cashed

AI 55% Implied 49% +1.04u

+104%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

NEW 4-3-3 · BIL 4-2-3-1

NEW · 4-3-3 4-2-3-1 · BIL

10 Gordon

📊 Statistics

NEW 2 – 0 BIL

58%

Possession (%)

42%

1.17

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.60

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Newcastle beat Athletic Club 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.17 to 0.60. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 12 shots to 8, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 21 graded markets, 10 landed and 11 missed, for a net -6.41 units (Brier 0.121).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

21 · 10 W · 11 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.04	—	55%	Cashed	+1.04	Cashed
Away Win	6.50	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.60	—	10%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.59	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.42	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.88	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.38	—	75%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
BTTS No	1.95	—	53%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Home Win	1.57	—	53%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	—	90%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.28	—	72%	Cashed	+0.28	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.97	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.90	—	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home +1	1.02	—	90%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.21	—	53%	Cashed	+0.21	Cashed
AH Away 0	4.76	—	20%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home -1	1.95	—	24%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
AH Away -1	1.96	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home -2	4.17	—	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away -2	1.25	—	3%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.15	—	80%	Cashed	+0.15	Cashed
Total · 21 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	10 W · 11 L	−6.41u	−31% ROI