Match Lille vs Lorient March 8, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 3.40 — +9.3% better than the market.

Lille holds a clear quality edge and home momentum, with a solid defensive setup likely to challenge Lorient's attack. Despite Lorient's recent wins, Lille's pressing edge and better form suggest control in midfield and chances on set-pieces. The match hints at a balanced pace, with both sides capable of goals but Lille favored to keep a tight shape.

Home defensive solidity vs away attack
Recent form favors Lille's consistency
Moderate tempo with goal opportunities

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 3.40 ✗ Lost

AI 32% Implied 29% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

LIL 4-3-1-2 · LOR 5-4-1

LIL · 4-3-1-2 5-4-1 · LOR

7 Fernandez-Pardo ⚽

Subs used · LIL

73'

Meunier ↑ ·

Santos ↓

73'

Mukau ↑ ·

Bouaddi ↓

74'

Correia ↑ ·

Perrin ↓

87'

Edjouma ↑ ·

Fernandez-Pardo ↓

88'

Diaoune ↑ ·

Haraldsson ↓

Subs used · LOR

66'

Dieng ↑ ·

Tosin ↓

66'

Le Bris ↑ ·

Makengo ↓

74'

Yongwa ↑ ·

Kouassi ↓

74'

Soumano ↑ ·

Katseris ↓

80'

Semedo ↑ ·

Karim ↓

📊 Statistics

LIL 1 – 1 LOR

58%

Possession (%)

42%

0.51

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.44

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 1 – 1

Gaëtan Perrin

Yellow Card

▮

22'

Aïssa Mandi

Yellow Card

▮

32'

Half-time · 0 – 0

55'

▮

Bamo Meïté

Yellow Card

M. Fernandez-Pardo

Assist · N. Bentaleb · 1–0

⚽

65'

66'

⇄

B. Dieng ↓ · A. Tosin ↑

Substitution 1

66'

⇄

T. Le Bris ↓ · J. Makengo ↑

Substitution 2

T. Meunier ↓ · T. Santos ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

73'

N. Mukau ↓ · A. Bouaddi ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

F. Correia ↓ · G. Perrin ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

⇄

D. Yongwa ↓ · A. Kouassi ↑

Substitution 3

74'

⇄

S. Soumano ↓ · P. Katseris ↑

Substitution 4

80'

⇄

D. Semedo ↓ · D. Karim ↑

Substitution 5

N. Edjouma ↓ · M. Fernandez-Pardo ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

87'

S. Diaoune ↓ · H. Haraldsson ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

90'

⚽

A. Avom

Assist · B. Meite · 1–1

Nabil Bentaleb

Yellow Card

▮

90+1'

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Lille and Lorient drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 5 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: M. Fernandez-Pardo (65'), A. Avom (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.49 units (Brier 0.192).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.64	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.96	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.96	—	53%	Cashed	+0.96	Cashed
BTTS No	1.98	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.00	—	46%	Cashed	+1.00	Cashed
Double Chance X2	2.43	—	35%	Cashed	+1.43	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.40	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.17	—	88%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.23	—	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.30	—	78%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	—	94%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	4.22	—	22%	Cashed	+3.22	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.37	—	68%	Cashed	+0.37	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.00	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.50	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.94	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	4.46	—	12%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.49u	−9% ROI