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Home Italy Serie A Genoa — Sassuolo

Predictions Genoa vs Sassuolo April 12, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Genoa
Genoa
Home · last 5 L D D L L
Kick-off
Sun 12 Apr · 10:30
2:1
Full-time
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
D W L L L Away · last 5
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris · Genova Referee A. Rapuano
Home Win · GEN
37%
Best 2.15
Draw
27%
Best 3.25
Away Win · SAS
36%
Best 3.55
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.73
Fair odds
1.59
book 1.73 · +8.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
High
p 63% · EV +8.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (64%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 37.1%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.6%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 36%
Odds 3.65
Show model details
Implied probability 27.4%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 26.9%
Odds 3.46
Show model details
Implied probability 28.9%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.78
Show model details
Implied probability 56.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 41.8%
Odds 2.23
Show model details
Implied probability 44.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 31.9%
Odds 3.26
Show model details
Implied probability 30.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5
Probability 78.5%
Odds 1.28
Show model details
Implied probability 78.1%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 10.4%
Odds 9.50
Show model details
Implied probability 10.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 89.6%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 68.1%
Odds 1.38
Show model details
Implied probability 72.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 21.5%
Odds 4.10
Show model details
Implied probability 24.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 52.9%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 47.1%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 36%
Odds 2.54
Show model details
Implied probability 39.4%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 37.1%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 62.9%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality High
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 64%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
GEN – SAS @ 1.73
+8.8%
Edge
Forecast →