Match Napoli vs AC Milan April 6, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 4.40 — +10.8% better than the market.

Napoli hosts AC Milan in a Serie A clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge, but Napoli’s strong home momentum and defensive solidity could balance the scales. Napoli’s recent form shows consistent wins, while Milan’s patchy results hint at vulnerability. Expect a tactical battle with Napoli’s compact block challenging Milan’s potent attack.

Napoli’s home edge in defense may stifle Milan’s offense
Milan’s higher offensive index suggests goal threat
Moderate pace expected, with a balanced goal environment

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 4.40 ✗ Lost

AI 25% Implied 23% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

NAP 3-4-2-1 · MIL 3-5-2

NAP · 3-4-2-1 3-5-2 · MIL

23 Giovane

Subs used · NAP

70'

Santos ↑ ·

Giovane ↓

74'

Politano ↑ ·

Spinazzola ↓

85'

Elmas ↑ ·

De Bruyne ↓

85'

Beukema ↑ ·

Jesus ↓

Subs used · MIL

62'

Athekame ↑ ·

Saelemaekers ↓

63'

Gimenez ↑ ·

Fullkrug ↓

74'

Pulisic ↑ ·

Nkunku ↓

82'

Loftus-Cheek ↑ ·

Tomori ↓

82'

Leao ↑ ·

Fofana ↓

📊 Statistics

NAP 1 – 0 MIL

53%

Possession (%)

47%

0.75

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.47

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 1 – 0

Alessandro Buongiorno

Yellow Card

▮

12'

Half-time · 0 – 0

62'

⇄

Z. Athekame ↓ · A. Saelemaekers ↑

Substitution 1

63'

⇄

S. Gimenez ↓ · N. Fullkrug ↑

Substitution 2

Alisson Santos ↓ · Giovane ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

70'

M. Politano ↓ · L. Spinazzola ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

74'

⇄

C. Pulisic ↓ · C. Nkunku ↑

Substitution 3

M. Politano

1–0

⚽

79'

Matteo Politano

Yellow Card

▮

81'

82'

⇄

R. Loftus-Cheek ↓ · F. Tomori ↑

Substitution 4

82'

⇄

R. Leao ↓ · Y. Fofana ↑

Substitution 5

E. Elmas ↓ · K. De Bruyne ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

85'

S. Beukema ↓ · Juan Jesus ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Napoli beat AC Milan 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the scoresheet: M. Politano (79').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.24 units (Brier 0.240).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Over 2.5	2.37	—	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.95	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.93	—	49%	Cashed	+0.93	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.69	—	54%	Cashed	+0.69	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.20	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.60	—	31%	Cashed	+1.60	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.78	—	31%	Cashed	+0.78	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.56	—	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.25	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.40	—	60%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.40	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.44	—	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.11	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.01	—	29%	Cashed	+2.01	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.10	—	91%	Cashed	+0.10	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.25	—	75%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Under 0.5	8.50	—	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.24u	−13% ROI