Match AC Milan vs Como February 18, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 3.56 — +13.4% better than the market.

AC Milan arrives with strong home momentum, boasting a solid recent run and a clear quality edge over Como. Their attacking prowess faces a tough defensive line, but Milan’s home comfort and pressing edge should create chances. Como’s form is patchy, and their defensive resilience will be tested at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.

Milan’s home advantage and sharper form suggest control in midfield.
Como’s defense may struggle against Milan’s dynamic offense.
Moderate pace expected, with potential for multiple goals given both sides’ attacking traits.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 3.56 ✗ Lost

AI 32% Implied 28% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MIL 3-5-2 · COM 3-4-2-1

MIL · 3-5-2 3-4-2-1 · COM

18 Nkunku

Subs used · MIL

46'

Gabbia ↑ ·

Pavlovic ↓

55'

Fofana ↑ ·

Ricci ↓

56'

Saelemaekers ↑ ·

Athekame ↓

62'

Fullkrug ↑ ·

Nkunku ↓

82'

Pulisic ↑ ·

Leao ↓

Subs used · COM

71'

Valle ↑ ·

Van der Brempt ↓

71'

Douvikas ↑ ·

Paz ↓

78'

Rodriguez ↑ ·

Caqueret ↓

78'

Da Cunha ↑ ·

Roberto ↓

90'

Smolcic ↑ ·

Vojvoda ↓

📊 Statistics

MIL 1 – 1 COM

54%

Possession (%)

46%

0.76

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.45

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

91%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 1 – 1

32'

⚽

N. Paz

0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

M. Gabbia ↓ · S. Pavlovic ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

53'

▮

Nico Paz

Yellow Card

Y. Fofana ↓ · S. Ricci ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

55'

A. Saelemaekers ↓ · Z. Athekame ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

56'

N. Fullkrug ↓ · C. Nkunku ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

62'

63'

▮

Jean Butez

Yellow Card

R. Leao

Assist · A. Jashari · 1–1

⚽

64'

Rafael Leão

Yellow Card

▮

68'

▮

Sergi Roberto

Yellow Card

71'

⇄

A. Valle ↓ · I. Van der Brempt ↑

Substitution 1

71'

⇄

A. Douvikas ↓ · N. Paz ↑

Substitution 2

78'

⇄

J. Rodriguez ↓ · M. Caqueret ↑

Substitution 3

78'

⇄

L. Da Cunha ↓ · S. Roberto ↑

Substitution 4

C. Pulisic ↓ · R. Leao ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

Alexis Saelemaekers

Yellow Card

▮

87'

90'

⇄

I. Smolcic ↓ · M. Vojvoda ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

AC Milan and Como drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.45 to 0.76. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 10 shots to 6, 4 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: N. Paz (32'), R. Leao (64').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.02 units (Brier 0.162).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.35	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.03	—	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.81	—	56%	Cashed	+0.81	Cashed
BTTS No	2.18	—	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.92	—	46%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.65	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.66	—	49%	Cashed	+0.66	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.35	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.38	—	78%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.56	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.33	—	77%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.07	—	93%	Cashed	+0.07	Cashed
Draw	3.46	—	27%	Cashed	+2.46	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.35	—	68%	Cashed	+0.35	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.75	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	11.00	—	7%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.35	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.02u	−18% ROI