Match Cremonese vs Lecce December 7, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 1.5 at 2.70 — +12.4% better than the market.

Cremonese holds a clear quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting they can control the tempo at Stadio Giovanni Zini. Their offensive strength outmatches Lecce's defensive setup, while Lecce's attack faces a tough defensive line. Recent form slightly favors Lecce, but Cremonese's home momentum and superior xG hint at a disciplined, low-scoring contest.

Home side's attacking edge vs away defense
Compact defensive block expected from Lecce
Likely cautious pace with under 2.5 goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 1.5

Under 1.5 @ 2.70 ✗ Lost

AI 42% Implied 37% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CRE 3-5-2 · LEC 4-2-3-1

CRE · 3-5-2 4-2-3-1 · LEC

10 Vardy

Subs used · CRE

68'

Zerbin ↑ ·

Vandeputte ↓

68'

Grassi ↑ ·

Bondo ↓

74'

Sanabria ↑ ·

Bonazzoli ↓

88'

Vazquez ↑ ·

Bianchetti ↓

88'

Folino ↑ ·

Barbieri ↓

Subs used · LEC

46'

Sottil ↑ ·

Banda ↓

67'

Ndri ↑ ·

Pierotti ↓

67'

Camarda ↑ ·

Stulic ↓

77'

Sala ↑ ·

Berisha ↓

77'

Kaba ↑ ·

Ramadani ↓

📊 Statistics

CRE 2 – 0 LEC

49%

Possession (%)

51%

2.04

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.92

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

73%

Pass Accuracy (%)

74%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 2 – 0

Half-time · 0 – 0

46'

⇄

R. Sottil ↓ · L. Banda ↑

Substitution 1

45+3'

▮

Lameck Banda

Yellow Card

F. Bonazzoli (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

53'

67'

⇄

K. Ndri ↓ · S. Pierotti ↑

Substitution 2

67'

⇄

F. Camarda ↓ · N. Stulic ↑

Substitution 3

A. Zerbin ↓ · J. Vandeputte ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

68'

A. Grassi ↓ · W. Bondo ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

68'

A. Sanabria ↓ · F. Bonazzoli ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

77'

⇄

A. Sala ↓ · M. Berisha ↑

Substitution 4

77'

⇄

M. Kaba ↓ · Y. Ramadani ↑

Substitution 5

A. Sanabria

Assist · A. Zerbin · 2–0

⚽

78'

Matteo Bianchetti

Yellow Card

▮

83'

84'

▮

Antonino Gallo

Yellow Card

F. Vazquez ↓ · M. Bianchetti ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

88'

F. Folino ↓ · T. Barbieri ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

88'

Full-time · 2 – 0

Match recap

Cremonese beat Lecce 2–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.04 to 0.92. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: F. Bonazzoli (53'), A. Sanabria (78').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -4.03 units (Brier 0.117).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	1.80	—	62%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.60	—	68%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Home Win	2.56	—	48%	Cashed	+1.56	Cashed
Under 1.5	2.70	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.79	—	48%	Cashed	+0.79	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.61	—	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.13	—	38%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.27	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.00	—	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.38	—	77%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Draw	3.12	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.53	—	58%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.58	—	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.19	—	85%	Cashed	+0.19	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.12	—	86%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Away Win	3.31	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	5.00	—	15%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−4.03u	−24% ROI