Match Udinese vs Genoa December 8, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance 1X at 1.39 — +5.6% better than the market.

Udinese holds a slight quality edge and benefits from a moderate home advantage, suggesting they can impose a compact defensive block against Genoa's sharper attack. Both sides show mixed recent form, but Udinese's home momentum and defensive solidity could limit Genoa's goal threat. Expect a tactical battle with moderate pace, where set-piece opportunities might be decisive given the cautious approach hinted by the odds.

Home defensive resilience vs away attacking edge
Close form trends with slight home momentum
Moderate tempo favors structured play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance 1X

Double Chance 1X @ 1.39 ✗ Lost

AI 76% Implied 72% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

UDI 3-5-2 · GEN 3-5-2

UDI · 3-5-2 3-5-2 · GEN

9 Davis

Subs used · UDI

15'

Modesto ↑ ·

Zemura ↓

72'

Buksa ↑ ·

Davis ↓

73'

Ehizibue ↑ ·

Zanoli ↓

86'

Lovric ↑ ·

Piotrowski ↓

86'

Bravo ↑ ·

Ekkelenkamp ↓

Subs used · GEN

63'

Ekuban ↑ ·

Vitinha ↓

75'

Ekhator ↑ ·

Colombo ↓

76'

Messias ↑ ·

Malinovskyi ↓

📊 Statistics

UDI 1 – 2 GEN

58%

Possession (%)

42%

1.07

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.53

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

77%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 1 – 2

R. Modesto ↓ · J. Zemura ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

15'

34'

⚽

R. Malinovskyi (P)

Penalty · 0–1

Half-time · 0 – 1

63'

⇄

C. Ekuban ↓ · Vitinha ↑

Substitution 1

J. Piotrowski

Assist · R. Modesto · 1–1

⚽

65'

Jesper Karlström

Yellow Card

▮

66'

A. Buksa ↓ · K. Davis ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

72'

K. Ehizibue ↓ · A. Zanoli ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

73'

75'

⇄

J. Ekhator ↓ · L. Colombo ↑

Substitution 2

76'

⇄

Junior Messias ↓ · R. Malinovskyi ↑

Substitution 3

83'

⚽

B. Norton-Cuffy

Assist · C. Ekuban · 1–2

S. Lovric ↓ · J. Piotrowski ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

86'

I. Bravo ↓ · J. Ekkelenkamp ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

86'

Full-time · 1 – 2

Match recap

Genoa won 2–1 away at Udinese. At half-time it was 0–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 58% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 23 shots to 12, 6 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 2.

On the scoresheet: R. Malinovskyi (34'), J. Piotrowski (65'), B. Norton-Cuffy (83').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.41 units (Brier 0.241).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.56	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.54	—	41%	Cashed	+1.54	Cashed
BTTS No	1.81	—	53%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	2.08	—	47%	Cashed	+1.08	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.61	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	2.75	—	33%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.75	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.26	—	24%	Cashed	+1.26	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.39	—	76%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.50	—	67%	Cashed	+0.50	Cashed
Draw	3.15	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.58	—	53%	Cashed	+0.58	Cashed
Over 3.5	4.80	—	21%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.12	—	89%	Cashed	+0.12	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.20	—	79%	Cashed	+0.20	Cashed
Under 0.5	7.50	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.31	—	24%	Cashed	+2.31	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.41u	−8% ROI