Match Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz July 28, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.53 — +8.4% better than the market.

Heart Of Midlothian faces Sturm Graz in a Champions League clash where recent form favors the visitors, who come off a win while the home side is on a losing streak. The odds suggest a cautious game with a lean towards under 2.5 goals, hinting at a compact defensive setup from both sides.

Sturm Graz’s momentum could challenge Hearts’ home resilience.
Both teams may prioritize defensive solidity over attacking risk.
The match pace is likely moderate, favoring tactical discipline.

Expect a tight encounter where set-pieces and moments of pressing intensity might decide the outcome rather than open, high-scoring play.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 3.5

Under 3.5 @ 1.53 ✓ Cashed

AI 71% Implied 65% +0.53u

+53%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

HEA 4-3-3 · STU 4-4-2

HEA · 4-3-3 4-4-2 · STU

7 Miller

📊 Statistics

HEA 0 – 2 STU

64%

Possession (%)

36%

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

80%

Pass Accuracy (%)

68%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Sturm Graz won 2–0 away at Heart Of Midlothian. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 64% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 80% of their passes. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 2. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 7 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.25 units (Brier 0.222).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 2.5	2.45	—	49%	Cashed	+1.45	Cashed
BTTS No	2.37	—	50%	Cashed	+1.37	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.92	—	51%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Home Win	1.82	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.38	—	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	17.00	—	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.53	—	71%	Cashed	+0.53	Cashed
Under 1.5	4.60	—	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.87	—	28%	Cashed	+2.87	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.28	—	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.92	—	28%	Cashed	+1.92	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.57	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.40	—	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	4.00	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.02	—	84%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.17	—	70%	Cashed	+0.17	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.25u	+1% ROI

Match Heart Of Midlothian vs Sturm Graz July 28, 2026 — Result and Stats

AI picks Under 3.5 at 1.53 — +8.4% better than the market.

⛀ Lineups

📊 Statistics

Match recap

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled