Match FC Basel 1893 vs FC Thun August 9, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.88 — +14.8% better than the market.

FC Basel 1893 hosts FC Thun in a Super League clash where recent form shows both sides with a win and a loss. Basel's home momentum could be key, but Thun’s slightly better recent points per game and higher expected goals hint at a competitive encounter. The match may lean towards a balanced pace with moderate goal potential given the odds favoring under 2.5 goals and a cautious approach from both teams.

Basel's home edge offers a pressing advantage.
Thun’s recent form suggests resilience on the road.
Historical results show mixed outcomes, indicating tactical adjustments.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.88 ✗ Lost

AI 40% Implied 35% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BAS 4-3-3 · THU 4-4-2

BAS · 4-3-3 4-4-2 · THU

11 Olaigbe

📊 Statistics

BAS 4 – 2 THU

47%

Possession (%)

53%

1.07

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.64

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

81%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Thun 4–2 at home. At half-time it was 2–0.

From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 5 to 1. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.07 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net -2.89 units (Brier 0.201).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Under 3.5	1.76	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.91	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.90	—	46%	Cashed	+0.90	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.03	—	39%	Cashed	+1.03	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.88	—	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.88	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.56	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.30	—	69%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.44	—	61%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.44	—	60%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Draw	4.00	—	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	5 W · 6 L	−2.89u	−26% ROI