Match Atalanta vs Como October 4, 2025 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 2.26 — +6.2% better than the market.

Atalanta vs Como: the hosts rate clearly stronger on overall level and recent output, with home edge pointing to longer spells of pressure. Como can counter and create in transition, but sustained control should tilt toward Atalanta. The market sits close on totals; our lean is a mildly open game where the home side’s chance volume nudges the number over the key threshold.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 2.26 ✗ Lost

AI 47% Implied 44% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ATA 3-4-2-1 · COM 4-2-3-1

ATA · 3-4-2-1 4-2-3-1 · COM

11 Lookman

Subs used · ATA

62'

Brescianini ↑ ·

Samardzic ↓

73'

Krstovic ↑ ·

Lookman ↓

74'

Musah ↑ ·

Ederson ↓

74'

Maldini ↑ ·

Sulemana ↓

Subs used · COM

46'

Morata ↑ ·

Douvikas ↓

68'

Valle ↑ ·

Vojvoda ↓

69'

Caqueret ↑ ·

Baturina ↓

85'

Posch ↑ ·

Smolcic ↓

89'

O. Kempf ↑ ·

Da Cunha ↓

📊 Statistics

ATA 1 – 1 COM

51%

Possession (%)

49%

1.40

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.32

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

86%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

15 · 1 – 1

L. Samardzic

1–0

⚽

19'

⚽

M. Perrone

1–1

Half-time · 1 – 1

46'

⇄

A. Morata ↓ · A. Douvikas ↑

Substitution 1

Berat Djimsiti

Yellow Card

▮

58'

M. Brescianini ↓ · L. Samardzic ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

62'

68'

⇄

A. Valle ↓ · M. Vojvoda ↑

Substitution 2

69'

⇄

M. Caqueret ↓ · M. Baturina ↑

Substitution 3

N. Krstovic ↓ · A. Lookman ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

73'

Y. Musah ↓ · Ederson ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

D. Maldini ↓ · K. Sulemana ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

74'

83'

▮

Diego Carlos

Yellow Card

84'

▮

Ivan Smolčić

Yellow Card

85'

⇄

S. Posch ↓ · I. Smolcic ↑

Substitution 4

88'

▮

Jayden Addai

Yellow Card

89'

⇄

M. O. Kempf ↓ · L. Da Cunha ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Atalanta and Como drew 1–1. At half-time it was 1–1.

In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 16 shots to 12, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 8 to 3. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Samardzic (6'), M. Perrone (19').

Model audit for this match: of 7 graded markets, 4 landed and 3 missed, for a net +0.98 units (Brier 0.212).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

7 · 4 W · 3 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	2.26	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.87	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.54	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.52	—	26%	Cashed	+2.52	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.68	—	56%	Cashed	+0.68	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.42	—	71%	Cashed	+0.42	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.36	—	75%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Total · 7 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	4 W · 3 L	+0.98u	+14% ROI