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Home Austria Bundesliga Sturm Graz — Austria Lustenau

Predictions Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau August 22, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Austria   /   Bundesliga Value pick inside
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
Home · last 5 D W W
Kick-off
Sat 22 Aug · 17:30
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Austria Lustenau
Austria Lustenau
D L W Away · last 5
Merkur-Arena · Graz Referee J. Weinberger
Home Win · STU
66%
Best 1.36
Draw
19%
Best 5.50
Away Win · LUS
15%
Best 8.50
Value pick
Under 2.5
@ 2.42
Fair odds
2.31
book 2.42 · +4.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
Pick confidence
Medium
p 43% · EV +4.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Over 2.5 is more likely (57%), but Under 2.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win
Probability 15.2%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.33
Show model details
Implied probability 75.2%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 19.3%
Odds 5.25
Show model details
Implied probability 19.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 4 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 43.3%
Odds 2.42
Show model details
Implied probability 41.3%
Bet quality Medium
Under 3.5 Best in group
Probability 64.3%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 35.7%
Odds 2.27
Show model details
Implied probability 44.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 56.7%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 52.7%
Odds 1.80
Show model details
Implied probability 55.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 47.3%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 34.5%
Odds 3.40
Show model details
Implied probability 29.4%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 84.8%
Odds 1.08
Show model details
Implied probability 92.6%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Under 2.5
STU – LUS @ 2.42
+4.8%
Edge
Forecast →