Match Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg August 1, 2026

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 5.45 — +2.0% better than the market.

Red Bull Salzburg start as clear favorites against TSV Hartberg, with home momentum likely to play a key role despite limited recent form data. The odds suggest a moderately high-scoring game, hinting at Salzburg's attacking edge and Hartberg's potential defensive vulnerabilities. Expect Salzburg to press aggressively early, leveraging their home comfort and tactical superiority.

Home side's attacking threat versus away defense
Moderate pace indicated by goal market odds
Home advantage likely to influence match flow

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Draw

Draw @ 5.45 ✗ Lost

AI 19% Implied 18% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

SAL 4-3-3 · HAR 4-3-3

SAL · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · HAR

43 Aguilar

23 Kainz

28 Gerstl

8 Postl

22 Hoffmann

📊 Statistics

SAL 1 – 0 HAR

73%

Possession (%)

27%

3.91

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.66

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Fouls

90%

Pass Accuracy (%)

72%

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 73% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 90% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.91 to 0.66. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 36 shots to 4, 7 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 19 to 2. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 6 saves.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net -2.67 units (Brier 0.177).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.91	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.95	—	49%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.60	—	59%	Cashed	+0.60	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.29	—	41%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.40	—	39%	Cashed	+1.40	Cashed
Away Win	8.90	—	17%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.53	—	61%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.42	—	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	5.45	—	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.08	—	83%	Cashed	+0.08	Cashed
Home Win	1.30	—	64%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	5 W · 6 L	−2.67u	−24% ROI