Match ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock August 2, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 3.20 — +0.7% better than the market.

With limited recent form and strength data, this Premiership clash at McDiarmid Park leans towards a cautious encounter. The odds suggest a balanced game with a slight edge to Kilmarnock on the double chance market, hinting at their resilience away. The moderate expectation for goals aligns with a match likely to feature tactical discipline and compact defensive setups from both sides.

Home advantage may be neutralized by away defensive solidity
Both teams likely to prioritize structure over high tempo
Goal opportunities could be limited, favoring under 3.5 goals

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 3.20 ✗ Lost

AI 31% Implied 31% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

JOH 4-2-3-1 · KIL 4-4-2

JOH · 4-2-3-1 4-4-2 · KIL

99 Paton

📊 Statistics

JOH 4 – 3 KIL

56%

Possession (%)

44%

1.76

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.79

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

ST Johnstone beat Kilmarnock 4–3 at home. At half-time it was 1–1.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 56% of the ball. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.76 to 0.79. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 7, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 6 to 3. In front of goal, the hosts were clinical, scoring 4 from 1.76 expected goals. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net -0.97 units (Brier 0.244).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.67	—	58%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.80	—	53%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.00	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.25	—	42%	Cashed	+1.25	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.62	—	58%	Cashed	+0.62	Cashed
BTTS No	2.20	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.20	—	31%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.40	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.00	—	32%	Cashed	+2.00	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.36	—	69%	Cashed	+0.36	Cashed
Draw	3.40	—	27%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	5 W · 6 L	−0.97u	−9% ROI