Match Motor Lublin vs Jagiellonia July 31, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Under 2.5 at 2.10 — +14.9% better than the market.

Motor Lublin hosts Jagiellonia in a clash where recent form favors the visitors, who come off a win while Motor Lublin drew their last match. The home side’s momentum is limited, but playing at Motor Lublin Arena could offer a slight pressing edge. Expect a cautious tempo given the odds leaning towards under 2.5 goals, suggesting a compact battle with few clear chances.

Jagiellonia’s winning form hints at confidence on the road
Home advantage may help Motor Lublin maintain defensive solidity
Low-scoring game likely with tight midfield control

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Under 2.5

Under 2.5 @ 2.10 ✗ Lost

AI 55% Implied 48% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

MOT 4-3-3 · JAG 4-3-3

MOT · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · JAG

11 Ronaldo

📊 Statistics

MOT 1 – 2 JAG

46%

Possession (%)

54%

2.02

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.89

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

87%

Pass Accuracy (%)

85%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Match recap

Jagiellonia won 2–1 away at Motor Lublin. At half-time it was 0–1.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 2.02 to 0.89. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 21 shots to 13, 7 on target. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 5 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

Model audit for this match: of 11 graded markets, 5 landed and 6 missed, for a net -2.59 units (Brier 0.203).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

11 · 5 W · 6 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.30	—	51%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.10	—	55%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.62	—	59%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	2.30	—	41%	Cashed	+1.30	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.70	—	45%	Cashed	+0.70	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.62	—	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.44	—	75%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.40	—	66%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Home Win	2.94	—	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.57	—	49%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Draw	3.60	—	26%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 11 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	5 W · 6 L	−2.59u	−24% ROI