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Home Portugal Primeira Liga FC Porto — Arouca

Predictions FC Porto vs Arouca August 23, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
FC Porto
FC Porto
Home · last 5 W W
Kick-off
Sun 23 Aug · 19:30
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Arouca
Arouca
W W Away · last 5
Referee J. Pinheiro
Home Win · POR
72%
Best 1.19
Draw
17%
Best 7.80
Away Win · ARO
12%
Best 16.00
Value pick
Over 3.5
@ 2.45
Fair odds
2.19
book 2.45 · +11.9% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 46% · EV +11.9%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Under 3.5 is more likely (54%), but Over 3.5 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win
Probability 11.6%
Odds 13.50
Show model details
Implied probability 7.4%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 16.7%
Odds 6.50
Show model details
Implied probability 15.4%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 71.8%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 84.8%
Bet quality Medium
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 45.8%
Odds 2.45
Show model details
Implied probability 40.9%
Bet quality Medium
Over 2.5 Value pick
Probability 66.6%
Odds 1.62
Show model details
Implied probability 61.7%
Bet quality Medium
Under 2.5
Probability 33.5%
Odds 2.34
Show model details
Implied probability 42.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 54.3%
Odds 1.48
Show model details
Implied probability 67.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.6%
Odds 1.16
Show model details
Implied probability 86.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 95.7%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.6%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15.4%
Odds 4.48
Show model details
Implied probability 22.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 4.4%
Odds 15.50
Show model details
Implied probability 6.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Value pick
Probability 52.2%
Odds 2.25
Show model details
Implied probability 44.4%
Bet quality Medium
BTTS No
Probability 47.8%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 11.6%
Odds 10.50
Show model details
Implied probability 9.5%
Bet quality Medium
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 71.8%
Odds 1.04
Show model details
Implied probability 96.2%
Bet quality Medium
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 28.2%
Odds 4.55
Show model details
Implied probability 22%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 88.4%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Over 3.5
POR – ARO @ 2.45
+11.9%
Edge
Forecast →