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Home Portugal Primeira Liga FC Porto — Alverca

Predictions FC Porto vs Alverca August 9, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Portugal   /   Primeira Liga Value pick inside
FC Porto
FC Porto
Home · last 5 W W
Kick-off
Sun 09 Aug · 17:00
2:0
Full-time
Alverca
Alverca
L D Away · last 5
Estádio do Dragão · Porto Referee Luís Godinho, Portugal
Home Win · POR
71%
Best 1.22
Draw
16%
Best 7.50
Away Win · ALV
14%
Best 16.00
Value pick
Draw
@ 7.00
Fair odds
6.38
book 7.00 · +9.8% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 16% · EV +9.8%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (71%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
No value bet found The model's probabilities are close to bookmaker prices, so there is no clear edge right now. The markets below show the most likely outcomes, not value bets.
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win
Probability 13.6%
Odds 16.00
Show model details
Implied probability 6.3%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 15.7%
Odds 7.00
Show model details
Implied probability 14.3%
Bet quality Low
Home Win Best in group
Probability 70.8%
Odds 1.18
Show model details
Implied probability 85.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 39.4%
Odds 2.42
Show model details
Implied probability 41.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 39.6%
Odds 2.34
Show model details
Implied probability 42.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 60.6%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 60.4%
Odds 1.53
Show model details
Implied probability 65.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 94.3%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 5.7%
Odds 16.75
Show model details
Implied probability 6%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 81.1%
Odds 1.15
Show model details
Implied probability 87.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 18.9%
Odds 4.90
Show model details
Implied probability 20.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes
Probability 41%
Odds 2.26
Show model details
Implied probability 44.3%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 59%
Odds 1.57
Show model details
Implied probability 63.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 13.6%
Odds 10.50
Show model details
Implied probability 9.5%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 70.8%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 29.3%
Odds 4.75
Show model details
Implied probability 21.1%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Best in group
Probability 86.4%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.6%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
POR – ALV @ 7.00
+9.8%
Edge
Forecast →