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Home France Ligue 1 Toulouse — Lyon

Predictions Toulouse vs Lyon August 22, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

France   /   Ligue 1 Value pick inside
Toulouse
Toulouse
Home · last 5 L L D W W
Kick-off
Sat 22 Aug · 18:45
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Lyon
Lyon
L L L W D Away · last 5
Stadium de Toulouse · Toulouse Referee G. Paradis
Home Win · TOU
33%
Best 2.96
Draw
25%
Best 3.75
Away Win · LYO
42%
Best 2.44
Value pick
Home Win
@ 3.10
Fair odds
3.05
book 3.10 · +1.6% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 33% · EV +1.6%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Away Win is more likely (42%), but Home Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
No value bet found The model's probabilities are close to bookmaker prices, so there is no clear edge right now. The markets below show the most likely outcomes, not value bets.
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Best in group
Probability 42%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 32.8%
Odds 3.10
Show model details
Implied probability 32.3%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 25.3%
Odds 3.55
Show model details
Implied probability 28.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 54.8%
Odds 1.73
Show model details
Implied probability 57.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 45.2%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 33.9%
Odds 2.76
Show model details
Implied probability 36.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 66.2%
Odds 1.41
Show model details
Implied probability 70.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.7%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.6%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 7.3%
Odds 13.00
Show model details
Implied probability 7.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 77.4%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 22.6%
Odds 4.14
Show model details
Implied probability 24.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 58.1%
Odds 1.61
Show model details
Implied probability 62.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 41.9%
Odds 2.24
Show model details
Implied probability 44.7%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0
Probability 32.8%
Odds 2.37
Show model details
Implied probability 42.2%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 42%
Odds 1.63
Show model details
Implied probability 61.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 58.1%
Odds 1.69
Show model details
Implied probability 59.4%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Best in group
Probability 67.2%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.8%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Home Win
TOU – LYO @ 3.10
+1.6%
Edge
Forecast →