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Home Italy Serie A Genoa — Napoli

Predictions Genoa vs Napoli August 22, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Italy   /   Serie A Value pick inside
Genoa
Genoa
Home · last 5 L D D L L
Kick-off
Sat 22 Aug · 18:45
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Napoli
Napoli
W D L W W Away · last 5
Referee M. Di Bello
Home Win · GEN
26%
Best 5.26
Draw
27%
Best 3.60
Away Win · NAP
47%
Best 1.87
Value pick
Double Chance 1X
@ 1.91
Fair odds
1.88
book 1.91 · +1.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 53% · EV +1.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance X2 is more likely (74%), but Double Chance 1X is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
No value bet found The model's probabilities are close to bookmaker prices, so there is no clear edge right now. The markets below show the most likely outcomes, not value bets.
FT Results 3 markets
Away Win Best in group
Probability 46.9%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Home Win
Probability 26.2%
Odds 4.50
Show model details
Implied probability 22.2%
Bet quality Low
Draw
Probability 26.9%
Odds 3.33
Show model details
Implied probability 30.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 56.9%
Odds 1.67
Show model details
Implied probability 59.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds 2.20
Show model details
Implied probability 45.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 32.3%
Odds 2.91
Show model details
Implied probability 34.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 77.5%
Odds 1.21
Show model details
Implied probability 82.6%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 67.8%
Odds 1.39
Show model details
Implied probability 72.2%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 22.5%
Odds 4.17
Show model details
Implied probability 24%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 88.4%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 11.6%
Odds 8.00
Show model details
Implied probability 12.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 53.5%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 46.5%
Odds 2.02
Show model details
Implied probability 49.6%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0
Probability 26.2%
Odds 3.36
Show model details
Implied probability 29.8%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0 Best in group
Probability 46.9%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X
Probability 53.1%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance X2 Best in group
Probability 73.8%
Odds 1.19
Show model details
Implied probability 84%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance 1X
GEN – NAP @ 1.91
+1.4%
Edge
Forecast →