🧠 Model verdict
Model leans toward Under 2.5 goals — 64% probability.
Also rated highly: both teams not to score 58%.
Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.
AI preview · 90 sec read
With limited recent form data, this La Liga opener between Rayo Vallecano and Alaves hints at a cautious encounter. The home side may enjoy a slight edge from familiar surroundings, while both teams could prioritize defensive solidity early in the season. Market odds suggest a moderate tempo with under 2.5 goals likely, pointing to a compact match where set-piece opportunities might be decisive.
- Home comfort may boost Rayo's pressing intensity
- Alaves likely to maintain a structured defensive block
- Early season nerves could limit attacking risks
✓ Most likely outcomes
What the model rates as most likely in each market.
| Market | Prob. % | Pred. |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 44% | Rayo Vallecano win |
| Over/Under 2.5 | 64% | Under 2.5 |
| BTTS | 58% | No |
| Double Chance | 72% | 1X |
- 1X2 Rayo Vallecano win 44%
- Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 64%
- BTTS No 58%
- Double Chance 1X 72%
📈 Odds movement · 1X2
72 hours · 4 bookmakers
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
≡ Recent form
Last 5 matches · all competitions
Rayo Vallecano
W/D/L
2-2-1
Goals (for / against)
7 / 5
Avg goals / match
2.4
Scored in
5/5
Clean sheets
1/5
Both teams scored
4/5
Over 2.5
2/5
Home (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Away (W-D-L)
1-1-1
xG (for / against)
1.44 / 1.32
Alaves
W/D/L
3-1-1
Goals (for / against)
7 / 3
Avg goals / match
2.0
Scored in
5/5
Clean sheets
3/5
Both teams scored
2/5
Over 2.5
2/5
Home (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Away (W-D-L)
1-1-0
xG (for / against)
1.56 / 0.80
⚔ Head-to-Head Performance
last 10 H2H · per matchEff. index — performance vs season baseline. Adj. index — efficiency normalised for opponent strength.
📡 Team strength
0–100 rating vs league · season-to-dateEach axis is rated 0–100 against all teams in the same league this season. 100 = league best on that axis, 0 = league worst. Higher is better.
🎯 Scenario insights
①
Rayo Vallecano wins when scoring first
57%
①
Alaves wins when scoring first
50%
⚽
Rayo Vallecano BTTS rate · last 10
50%
⚽
Alaves BTTS rate · last 10
70%
↑
Rayo Vallecano Over 2.5 · last 10
40%
↑
Alaves Over 2.5 · last 10
70%
↩
Rayo Vallecano comeback rate · last 10
50%
↩
Alaves comeback rate · last 10
100%
🔥 Goal timing
Rayo Vallecano · last 10 at home
0–15
0%
16–30
12%
31–45
24%
46–60
18%
61–75
12%
76–90
35%
Alaves · last 10 away
0–15
7%
16–30
21%
31–45
7%
46–60
21%
61–75
21%
76–90
21%
Late-game scoring — most goals come after the 60th.
