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Home Spain La Liga Atletico Madrid — Villarreal

Predictions Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal August 23, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Home · last 5 W
Kick-off
Sun 23 Aug · 15:00
:
Pre-match · scheduled
Villarreal
Villarreal
D Away · last 5
Home Win · ATM
47%
Best 1.92
Draw
25%
Best 3.84
Away Win · VIL
28%
Best 4.26
Value pick
Away Win
@ 4.00
Fair odds
3.55
book 4.00 · +12.7% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 28% · EV +12.7%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (47%), but Away Win is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 46.7%
Odds 1.89
Show model details
Implied probability 52.9%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 28.2%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 25.1%
Odds 3.68
Show model details
Implied probability 27.2%
Bet quality Low
Totals 6 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 50%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 50%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 30%
Odds 3.12
Show model details
Implied probability 32.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5 Best in group
Probability 74.4%
Odds 1.26
Show model details
Implied probability 79.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 70%
Odds 1.34
Show model details
Implied probability 74.6%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 25.6%
Odds 3.66
Show model details
Implied probability 27.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 53.6%
Odds 1.74
Show model details
Implied probability 57.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 46.4%
Odds 2.01
Show model details
Implied probability 49.8%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 28.2%
Odds 3.08
Show model details
Implied probability 32.5%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 46.7%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 53.3%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 71.8%
Odds 1.22
Show model details
Implied probability 82%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Away Win
ATM – VIL @ 4.00
+12.7%
Edge
Forecast →