Match France vs Sweden June 30, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Draw at 5.63 — +4.4% better than the market.

France enter this World Cup clash with strong home momentum, boasting a solid defensive record and a potent attack that averages nearly three goals per game in qualifiers. Their compact block and high pressing could exploit Sweden's defensive vulnerabilities, who have conceded heavily and lack clean sheets recently. Sweden's resilience and occasional counter-attacks may test France's defense, but the French side's superior form and attacking edge suggest they will control the tempo.

France's clinical finishing and pressing edge
Sweden's defensive frailties and counter threat
High chance of goals given both sides' scoring trends

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Draw

Draw @ 5.63 ✗ Lost

AI 19% Implied 18% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

FRA 4-2-3-1 · SWE 3-4-2-1

FRA · 4-2-3-1 3-4-2-1 · SWE

10 Mbappé ⚽

Subs used · FRA

75'

Gusto ↑ ·

Kounde ↓

75'

Doue ↑ ·

Dembele ↓

78'

Hernandez ↑ ·

Digne ↓

85'

Mateta ↑ ·

Mbappe ↓

85'

Cherki ↑ ·

Olise ↓

Subs used · SWE

66'

Ali ↑ ·

Stroud ↓

66'

Zeneli ↑ ·

Bergvall ↓

82'

Svanberg ↑ ·

Svensson ↓

82'

Nygren ↑ ·

Ayari ↓

89'

Nilsson ↑ ·

Isak ↓

📊 Statistics

FRA 3 – 0 SWE

61%

Possession (%)

39%

3.17

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.65

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

88%

Pass Accuracy (%)

80%

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

13 · 3 – 0

K. Mbappe

Assist · O. Dembele · 1–0

⚽

45'

Half-time · 1 – 0

B. Barcola

Assist · M. Olise · 2–0

⚽

53'

66'

⇄

T. Ali ↓ · E. Stroud ↑

Substitution 1

66'

⇄

B. Zeneli ↓ · L. Bergvall ↑

Substitution 2

K. Mbappe

Assist · M. Olise · 3–0

⚽

74'

M. Gusto ↓ · J. Kounde ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

75'

D. Doue ↓ · O. Dembele ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

75'

T. Hernandez ↓ · L. Digne ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

78'

82'

⇄

M. Svanberg ↓ · D. Svensson ↑

Substitution 3

82'

⇄

B. Nygren ↓ · Y. Ayari ↑

Substitution 4

J. Mateta ↓ · K. Mbappe ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

85'

R. Cherki ↓ · M. Olise ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

85'

89'

⇄

G. Nilsson ↓ · A. Isak ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 3 – 0

Match recap

France beat Sweden 3–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 61% of the ball. For accuracy, the hosts completed 88% of their passes. On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 3.17 to 0.65. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 25 shots to 8, 12 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 1. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 9 saves.

On the scoresheet: K. Mbappe (45'), B. Barcola (53'), K. Mbappe (74').

Model audit for this match: of 15 graded markets, 7 landed and 8 missed, for a net -5.22 units (Brier 0.114).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

15 · 7 W · 8 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS Yes	1.78	1.72	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.03	2.03	43%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.75	3.00	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.03	2.02	44%	Cashed	+1.03	Cashed
Away Win	10.45	10.42	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	3.63	3.75	32%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.80	1.80	57%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.40	1.40	65%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.06	1.05	86%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Home Win	1.29	1.25	68%	Cashed	+0.29	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.06	1.09	68%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	5.63	5.92	19%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.14	1.11	82%	Cashed	+0.14	Cashed
AH Away 0	6.45	6.90	14%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	5.00	6.29	18%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 15 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	7 W · 8 L	−5.22u	−35% ROI