Match Celta Vigo vs Sevilla May 23, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.91 — +14.4% better than the market.

Celta Vigo vs Sevilla Preview

Celta Vigo holds a clear quality edge and a notable home momentum, supported by a solid defensive setup that challenges Sevilla’s attack. Sevilla’s recent form shows resilience, but their defensive frailties may be exposed against Celta’s sharper offensive play. The match hints at a moderate tempo with a balanced goal environment, favoring a tight contest where Celta’s home advantage and pressing edge could be decisive.

Celta’s defensive compactness vs Sevilla’s attack
Home momentum and tactical discipline
Moderate pace suggesting controlled, strategic play

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.91 ✓ Cashed

AI 60% Implied 52% +0.91u

+91%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

CEL 3-4-3 · SEV 4-3-3

CEL · 3-4-3 4-3-3 · SEV

19 Swedberg

Subs used · CEL

65'

Alvarez ↑ ·

Swedberg ↓

66'

Jutgla ↑ ·

Aspas ↓

74'

Vecino ↑ ·

Lopez ↓

74'

Duran ↑ ·

Iglesias ↓

90+3'

Mingueza ↑ ·

Rueda ↓

Subs used · SEV

64'

Vargas ↑ ·

Peque ↓

64'

Maupay ↑ ·

Sanchez ↓

64'

Adams ↑ ·

Romero ↓

77'

Ejuke ↑ ·

Oso ↓

86'

Gudelj ↑ ·

Agoume ↓

📊 Statistics

CEL 1 – 0 SEV

54%

Possession (%)

46%

1.57

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.80

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

89%

Pass Accuracy (%)

86%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 1 – 0

I. Moriba

Yellow Card

▮

38'

Half-time · 0 – 0

I. Moriba

Assist · F. Lopez · 1–0

⚽

51'

64'

⇄

R. Vargas ↓ · Peque ↑

Substitution 1

64'

⇄

N. Maupay ↓ · A. Sanchez ↑

Substitution 2

64'

⇄

A. Adams ↓ · I. Romero ↑

Substitution 3

H. Alvarez ↓ · W. Swedberg ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

65'

F. Jutgla ↓ · I. Aspas ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

66'

M. Vecino ↓ · F. Lopez ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

74'

P. Duran ↓ · B. Iglesias ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

74'

77'

⇄

C. Ejuke ↓ · Oso ↑

Substitution 4

86'

⇄

N. Gudelj ↓ · L. Agoume ↑

Substitution 5

O. Mingueza ↓ · J. Rueda ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90+3'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Celta Vigo beat Sevilla 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.57 to 0.80.

On the scoresheet: I. Moriba (51').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.38 units (Brier 0.156).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.91	1.95	60%	Cashed	+0.91	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.94	1.80	54%	Cashed	+0.94	Cashed
BTTS No	1.95	1.93	52%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.00	2.00	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.83	1.83	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.05	1.87	40%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.43	1.42	60%	Cashed	+0.43	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.75	3.40	29%	Cashed	+2.75	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.26	1.22	84%	Cashed	+0.26	Cashed
Under 0.5	11.50	10.00	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.33	1.31	75%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.05	1.05	91%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Draw	3.84	3.45	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.29	1.30	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.40	3.40	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.60	4.00	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.45	2.99	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.38u	−14% ROI