Match Atletico Madrid vs Girona May 17, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Home Win at 1.83 — +11.5% better than the market.

Atletico Madrid enter this clash with clear home momentum, boasting a solid defensive edge and a potent attack that outmatches Girona’s defense. Their recent form shows resilience, while Girona struggles for consistency and goals. The tactical setup favors Atletico’s compact block and set-piece threat, likely controlling the pace in a moderately open game.

Home defensive solidity vs away offensive struggles
Superior recent form and home advantage
Moderate tempo suggests balanced chances but Atletico’s edge prevails

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Home Win

Home Win @ 1.83 ✓ Cashed

AI 61% Implied 55% +0.83u

+83%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ATM 4-4-2 · GIR 4-3-3

ATM · 4-4-2 4-3-3 · GIR

22 Lookman ⚽

Subs used · ATM

46'

Almada ↑ ·

Simeone ↓

61'

Sorloth ↑ ·

Baena ↓

61'

Morcillo ↑ ·

Vargas ↓

63'

Lenglet ↑ ·

Lookman ↓

Subs used · GIR

56'

Stuani ↑ ·

Gil ↓

56'

Beltran ↑ ·

Witsel ↓

63'

Echeverri ↑ ·

Roca ↓

77'

Lopez ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

📊 Statistics

ATM 1 – 0 GIR

47%

Possession (%)

53%

1.94

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

2.18

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

84%

Pass Accuracy (%)

90%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

11 · 1 – 0

A. Lookman

Assist · A. Griezmann · 1–0

⚽

21'

R. Le Normand

Yellow Card

▮

23'

Half-time · 1 – 0

T. Almada ↓ · G. Simeone ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

46'

56'

⇄

C. Stuani ↓ · B. Gil ↑

Substitution 1

56'

⇄

F. Beltran ↓ · A. Witsel ↑

Substitution 2

A. Sorloth ↓ · A. Baena ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

61'

J. Morcillo ↓ · O. Vargas ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

61'

63'

⇄

C. Echeverri ↓ · J. Roca ↑

Substitution 3

C. Lenglet ↓ · A. Lookman ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

63'

77'

⇄

D. Lopez ↓ · A. Martinez ↑

Substitution 4

J. Morcillo

Yellow Card

▮

85'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Atletico Madrid beat Girona 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 25 shots to 17, 11 on target. At the back, the hosts leaned on their goalkeeper for 11 saves.

On the scoresheet: A. Lookman (21').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -1.37 units (Brier 0.195).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Home Win	1.83	1.75	61%	Cashed	+0.83	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.23	2.30	44%	Cashed	+1.23	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.76	1.62	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.20	2.27	44%	Cashed	+1.20	Cashed
Over 3.5	2.75	2.55	34%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.67	1.59	56%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	2.09	2.00	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.24	1.21	84%	Cashed	+0.24	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.44	1.50	66%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.32	1.32	61%	Cashed	+0.32	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.04	1.02	94%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.22	1.20	79%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.98	3.85	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.33	4.50	21%	Cashed	+3.33	Cashed
Under 0.5	14.00	14.93	6%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.62	4.37	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.30	3.23	16%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−1.37u	−8% ROI