Match Alaves vs Barcelona May 13, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Over 3.5 at 2.55 — +13.1% better than the market.

Barcelona enter this clash with a clear quality edge and a strong winning streak, contrasting with Alaves' mixed recent form. The visitors' potent attack is likely to challenge Alaves' defense, which has shown vulnerabilities. Despite Alaves' home momentum, Barcelona's pressing and clinical finishing could dictate the game's rhythm in a moderately open contest.

Barcelona's offensive firepower vs Alaves' defensive lapses
Alaves' inconsistent form at home
Potential for a lively, goal-involved match

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Over 3.5

Over 3.5 @ 2.55 ✗ Lost

AI 44% Implied 39% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

ALA 4-4-2 · BAR 4-2-3-1

ALA · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · BAR

11 Martínez

Subs used · ALA

64'

Manas ↑ ·

Diabate ↓

64'

Ibanez ↑ ·

Suarez ↓

80'

Protesoni ↑ ·

Parada ↓

Subs used · BAR

62'

Torres ↑ ·

Bardghji ↓

62'

Espart ↑ ·

Cubarsi ↓

62'

Pedri ↑ ·

Casado ↓

79'

Cancelo ↑ ·

Balde ↓

87'

Marques ↑ ·

Bernal ↓

📊 Statistics

ALA 1 – 0 BAR

23%

Possession (%)

77%

0.66

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.59

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

59%

Pass Accuracy (%)

89%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

12 · 1 – 0

I. Diabate

Assist · A. Blanco · 1–0

⚽

45+1'

Half-time · 1 – 0

46'

▮

M. Rashford

Yellow Card

62'

⇄

F. Torres ↓ · R. Bardghji ↑

Substitution 1

62'

⇄

X. Espart ↓ · P. Cubarsi ↑

Substitution 2

62'

⇄

Pedri ↓ · M. Casado ↑

Substitution 3

A. Manas ↓ · I. Diabate ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

64'

P. Ibanez ↓ · D. Suarez ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

64'

79'

⇄

J. Cancelo ↓ · A. Balde ↑

Substitution 4

C. Protesoni ↓ · V. Parada ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

80'

A. Rebbach

Yellow Card

▮

81'

87'

⇄

T. Marques ↓ · M. Bernal ↑

Substitution 5

89'

▮

J. Cancelo

Yellow Card

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Alaves beat Barcelona 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 1–0.

In possession, the visitors ran the game with 77% of the ball. For accuracy, the visitors completed 89% of their passes. For discipline, the referee produced 3 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: I. Diabate (45+1').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +5.43 units (Brier 0.368).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Away Win	2.15	2.12	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	2.55	2.50	44%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	2.80	2.43	35%	Cashed	+1.80	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.64	1.48	54%	Cashed	+0.64	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.89	1.70	46%	Cashed	+0.89	Cashed
AH Away 0	1.60	1.62	54%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	2.36	2.30	35%	Cashed	+1.36	Cashed
Double Chance X2	1.36	1.36	78%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.69	1.62	65%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.53	1.52	62%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	2.84	2.39	22%	Cashed	+1.84	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.02	1.02	96%	Cashed	+0.02	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.14	1.17	86%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Draw	3.84	3.70	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	3.88	3.15	22%	Cashed	+2.88	Cashed
Under 1.5	6.00	4.50	14%	Cashed	+5.00	Cashed
Under 0.5	20.00	14.93	4%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+5.43u	+32% ROI