Match Rayo Vallecano vs Girona May 11, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Away Win at 3.10 — +11.3% better than the market.

Rayo Vallecano hosts Girona in a tight La Liga clash where the away side holds a slight quality edge. However, Rayo’s home momentum and better recent form suggest a competitive encounter. The home team’s defensive solidity faces a Girona attack that has struggled for consistency, hinting at a tactical battle with few clear-cut chances.

Rayo’s home edge in defense could frustrate Girona’s offense.
Recent form favors Rayo, adding confidence.
Moderate pace expected, likely a balanced, tactical game.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Away Win

Away Win @ 3.10 ✗ Lost

AI 36% Implied 32% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

RAY 4-3-3 · GIR 4-3-3

RAY · 4-3-3 4-3-3 · GIR

21 Pérez

Subs used · RAY

58'

Alemao ↑ ·

Perez ↓

58'

Gumbau ↑ ·

Diaz ↓

68'

Pacha ↑ ·

Camello ↓

68'

Martin ↑ ·

de Frutos ↓

Subs used · GIR

60'

Echeverri ↑ ·

Lemar ↓

60'

Martin ↑ ·

Ounahi ↓

72'

Rincon ↑ ·

Martinez ↓

85'

Stuani ↑ ·

Beltran ↓

📊 Statistics

RAY 1 – 1 GIR

59%

Possession (%)

41%

1.09

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.86

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

11 · 1 – 1

P. Diaz

Yellow Card

▮

44'

Half-time · 0 – 0

Alemao ↓ · F. Perez ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

58'

G. Gumbau ↓ · P. Diaz ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

58'

60'

⇄

C. Echeverri ↓ · T. Lemar ↑

Substitution 1

60'

⇄

I. Martin ↓ · A. Ounahi ↑

Substitution 2

Pacha ↓ · S. Camello ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

68'

C. Martin ↓ · J. de Frutos ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

68'

72'

⇄

H. Rincon ↓ · A. Martinez ↑

Substitution 3

85'

⇄

C. Stuani ↓ · F. Beltran ↑

Substitution 4

Alemao

Assist · U. Lopez · 1–0

⚽

86'

90'

⚽

C. Stuani

Assist · V. Tsygankov · 1–1

Full-time · 1 – 1

Match recap

Rayo Vallecano and Girona drew 1–1. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 59% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 18 shots to 9, 5 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 9 to 5.

On the scoresheet: Alemao (86'), C. Stuani (90').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -3.34 units (Brier 0.150).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
BTTS No	2.00	1.91	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 2.5	1.80	1.73	55%	Cashed	+0.80	Cashed
Home Win	2.56	2.43	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	2.28	2.10	45%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.85	1.84	50%	Cashed	+0.85	Cashed
AH Away 0	2.14	2.17	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.82	1.76	37%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	3.10	3.23	36%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance X2	1.57	1.52	63%	Cashed	+0.57	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.44	1.38	64%	Cashed	+0.44	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.30	1.23	76%	Cashed	+0.30	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.80	3.80	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.40	3.00	30%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	12.00	9.01	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.05	1.04	92%	Cashed	+0.05	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	1.33	74%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Draw	3.40	3.05	27%	Cashed	+2.40	Cashed
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−3.34u	−20% ROI