Match Athletic Club vs Valencia May 10, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.10 — +8.8% better than the market.

Athletic Club holds a slight edge in home momentum with better recent form and a compact defensive setup that challenges Valencia's attack. Despite Valencia's marginally higher overall quality, their away struggles and less consistent form suggest a cautious approach. Expect a tactical battle with limited clear-cut chances.

Athletic's defensive solidity counters Valencia's moderate offensive threat.
Home form advantage could tilt midfield control.
Odds suggest a balanced game with a modest goal pace.

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 2.10 ✓ Cashed

AI 52% Implied 48% +1.10u

+110%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

BIL 4-2-3-1 · VAL 4-2-3-1

BIL · 4-2-3-1 4-2-3-1 · VAL

11 Guruzeta

Subs used · BIL

36'

Williams ↑ ·

Williams ↓

46'

Vivian ↑ ·

Laporte ↓

65'

Berenguer ↑ ·

Sancet ↓

70'

Gomez ↑ ·

Navarro ↓

71'

Vesga ↑ ·

Rego ↓

Subs used · VAL

70'

Ramazani ↑ ·

Lopez ↓

70'

Sadiq ↑ ·

Duro ↓

70'

Ugrinic ↑ ·

Pepelu ↓

83'

Nunez ↑ ·

Guerra ↓

90+6'

Vazquez ↑ ·

Saravia ↓

📊 Statistics

BIL 0 – 1 VAL

55%

Possession (%)

45%

1.01

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.14

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

81%

Pass Accuracy (%)

79%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

17 · 0 – 1

A. Laporte

Yellow Card

▮

15'

27'

⚽

H. Duro (P)

Penalty · Assist · H. Duro · 0–1

I. Williams ↓ · N. Williams ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

36'

Half-time · 0 – 1

D. Vivian ↓ · A. Laporte ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

46'

50'

▮

E. Comert

Yellow Card

A. Rego

Yellow Card

▮

55'

59'

▮

Pepelu

Yellow Card

A. Berenguer ↓ · O. Sancet ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

65'

70'

⇄

L. Ramazani ↓ · D. Lopez ↑

Substitution 1

70'

⇄

U. Sadiq ↓ · H. Duro ↑

Substitution 2

70'

⇄

F. Ugrinic ↓ · Pepelu ↑

Substitution 3

U. Gomez ↓ · R. Navarro ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

70'

M. Vesga ↓ · A. Rego ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

71'

72'

⚽

U. Sadiq

Assist · L. Rioja · 0–2

83'

⇄

U. Nunez ↓ · J. Guerra ↑

Substitution 4

88'

▮

U. Sadiq

Yellow Card

90+6'

⇄

J. Vazquez ↓ · Renzo Saravia ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 0 – 1

Match recap

Valencia won 1–0 away at Athletic Club. At half-time it was 0–0.

In possession, the hosts ran the game with 55% of the ball. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 15 shots to 7, 4 on target. From set pieces, the hosts won the corner count, 13 to 5. At the back, the visitors leaned on their goalkeeper for 4 saves. For discipline, the referee produced 5 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: U. Sadiq (72').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +3.69 units (Brier 0.258).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	2.10	2.12	52%	Cashed	+1.10	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.95	1.80	53%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
BTTS No	1.95	1.78	51%	Cashed	+0.95	Cashed
BTTS Yes	1.91	1.96	49%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 2.5	1.99	2.00	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.83	1.66	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	5.00	5.49	28%	Cashed	+4.00	Cashed
Under 1.5	3.75	3.30	29%	Cashed	+2.75	Cashed
Double Chance 1X	1.23	1.17	72%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 3.5	1.33	1.25	75%	Cashed	+0.33	Cashed
AH Away 0	3.55	3.82	28%	Cashed	+2.55	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.06	1.03	91%	Cashed	+0.06	Cashed
Draw	3.90	3.73	24%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	10.00	9.01	9%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 1.5	1.28	1.31	71%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	3.40	3.60	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.30	1.23	48%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+3.69u	+22% ROI