Match Valencia vs Atletico Madrid May 2, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 2.08 — +12.4% better than the market.

Valencia hosts Atletico Madrid in a La Liga clash where the visitors hold a clear quality edge. Atletico's stronger attack meets a resilient Valencia defense, but the home side's recent form and home momentum could keep things tight. Expect a tactical battle with Atletico pressing for control while Valencia aims to exploit set-piece opportunities.

Atletico's offensive edge challenges Valencia's defense
Home momentum favors Valencia's compact block
Moderate pace suggested by balanced goal odds

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 2.08 ✓ Cashed

AI 54% Implied 48% +1.08u

+108%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

VAL 4-4-2 · ATM 4-4-2

VAL · 4-4-2 4-4-2 · ATM

6 Sadiq

Subs used · VAL

59'

Duro ↑ ·

Ugrinic ↓

59'

Lopez ↑ ·

Rioja ↓

73'

Danjuma ↑ ·

Ramazani ↓

73'

Vazquez ↑ ·

Gaya ↓

82'

Raba ↑ ·

Saravia ↓

Subs used · ATM

63'

Cubo ↑ ·

Morcillo ↓

63'

Luque ↑ ·

Belaid ↓

73'

Koke ↑ ·

Almada ↓

73'

Griezmann ↑ ·

Mendoza ↓

90+7'

Puric ↑ ·

Bonar ↓

📊 Statistics

VAL 0 – 2 ATM

53%

Possession (%)

47%

1.11

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

1.78

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

83%

Pass Accuracy (%)

83%

Yellow Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

⏱ Match events

16 · 0 – 2

29'

▮

T. Almada

Yellow Card

Half-time · 0 – 0

52'

▮

R. Mendoza

Yellow Card

H. Duro ↓ · F. Ugrinic ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

59'

D. Lopez ↓ · L. Rioja ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

59'

61'

▮

O. Vargas

Yellow Card

63'

⇄

M. Cubo ↓ · J. Morcillo ↑

Substitution 1

63'

⇄

I. Luque ↓ · R. Belaid ↑

Substitution 2

C. Tarrega

Yellow Card

▮

67'

73'

⇄

Koke ↓ · T. Almada ↑

Substitution 3

73'

⇄

A. Griezmann ↓ · R. Mendoza ↑

Substitution 4

A. Danjuma ↓ · L. Ramazani ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

73'

J. Vazquez ↓ · J. Gaya ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

73'

74'

⚽

I. Luque

Assist · O. Vargas · 0–1

82'

⚽

M. Cubo

Assist · A. Griezmann · 0–2

D. Raba ↓ · Renzo Saravia ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

82'

90+7'

⇄

A. Puric ↓ · J. Bonar ↑

Substitution 5

Full-time · 0 – 2

Match recap

Atletico Madrid won 2–0 away at Valencia. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the visitors held the expected-goals edge, 1.78 to 1.11. In attack, the visitors carried the greater threat — 20 shots to 12, 5 on target. From set pieces, the visitors won the corner count, 7 to 1. For discipline, the referee produced 4 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: I. Luque (74'), M. Cubo (82').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net +0.62 units (Brier 0.205).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	2.08	2.02	54%	Cashed	+1.08	Cashed
Under 2.5	2.07	2.00	50%	Cashed	+1.07	Cashed
BTTS No	2.05	1.98	48%	Cashed	+1.05	Cashed
Over 2.5	1.88	1.80	50%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.75	1.75	52%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	1.84	1.73	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Away Win	4.51	4.44	31%	Cashed	+3.51	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.40	1.35	71%	Cashed	+0.40	Cashed
Over 3.5	3.10	3.00	29%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.24	1.20	69%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	4.10	3.80	25%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	3.22	3.42	31%	Cashed	+2.22	Cashed
Under 0.5	12.50	10.99	8%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 0.5	1.04	1.03	92%	Cashed	+0.04	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.25	1.24	75%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Draw	4.00	3.95	23%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Home 0	1.35	1.29	46%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	+0.62u	+4% ROI