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Home Spain La Liga Rayo Vallecano — Espanyol

Predictions Rayo Vallecano vs Espanyol April 23, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano
Home · last 5 W D D W W
Kick-off
Thu 23 Apr · 18:00
1:0
Full-time
Espanyol
Espanyol
L L W W D Away · last 5
Estadio de Vallecas · Madrid Referee Adrian Cordero Vega, Spain
Home Win · RAY
38%
Best 2.16
Draw
28%
Best 3.46
Away Win · ESP
34%
Best 3.81
Value pick
Double Chance X2
@ 1.75
Fair odds
1.62
book 1.75 · +8.2% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 62% · EV +8.2%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Double Chance 1X is more likely (66%), but Double Chance X2 is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Best in group
Probability 38.2%
Odds 2.19
Show model details
Implied probability 45.7%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 33.9%
Odds 3.96
Show model details
Implied probability 25.3%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 28%
Odds 3.30
Show model details
Implied probability 30.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 2.5
Probability 56.2%
Odds 1.77
Show model details
Implied probability 56.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 43.9%
Odds 2.22
Show model details
Implied probability 45.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 69.5%
Odds 1.40
Show model details
Implied probability 71.4%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 30.5%
Odds 3.22
Show model details
Implied probability 31.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 90%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 76.7%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 23.3%
Odds 4.00
Show model details
Implied probability 25%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 10%
Odds 9.00
Show model details
Implied probability 11.1%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No Best in group
Probability 51.4%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes
Probability 48.6%
Odds 1.91
Show model details
Implied probability 52.4%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Away 0
Probability 33.9%
Odds 2.76
Show model details
Implied probability 36.2%
Bet quality Low
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 38.2%
Odds 1.50
Show model details
Implied probability 66.7%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 61.8%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 66.1%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Medium

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Double Chance X2
RAY – ESP @ 1.75
+8.2%
Edge
Forecast →