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Home Spain La Liga Atletico Madrid — Athletic Club

Predictions Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club April 25, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Atletico Madrid
Atletico Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W L
Kick-off
Sat 25 Apr · 19:00
3:2
Full-time
Athletic Club
Athletic Club
W L L D L Away · last 5
Referee Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
Home Win · ATM
53%
Best 2.48
Draw
27%
Best 3.70
Away Win · BIL
19%
Best 3.60
Value pick
Draw
@ 3.80
Fair odds
3.67
book 3.80 · +3.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Low
p 27% · EV +3.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (53%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Home Win Top pick
Probability 53.4%
Odds 2.51
Show model details
Implied probability 39.8%
Bet quality Medium
Draw
Probability 27.2%
Odds 3.80
Show model details
Implied probability 26.3%
Bet quality Low
Away Win
Probability 19.4%
Odds 4.33
Show model details
Implied probability 23.1%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 2.5
Probability 51.9%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 48.1%
Odds 1.97
Show model details
Implied probability 50.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 30.6%
Odds 3.25
Show model details
Implied probability 30.8%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 92.7%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 75.7%
Odds 1.31
Show model details
Implied probability 76.3%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 69.4%
Odds 1.36
Show model details
Implied probability 73.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 24.3%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 7.3%
Odds 11.50
Show model details
Implied probability 8.7%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS No
Probability 45.9%
Odds 2.10
Show model details
Implied probability 47.6%
Bet quality Low
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 54.2%
Odds 1.75
Show model details
Implied probability 57.1%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Best in group
Probability 53.4%
Odds 1.81
Show model details
Implied probability 55.3%
Bet quality Low
AH Away 0
Probability 19.4%
Odds 2.16
Show model details
Implied probability 46.3%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance X2
Probability 46.7%
Odds 2.00
Show model details
Implied probability 50%
Bet quality Low
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 80.6%
Odds 1.44
Show model details
Implied probability 69.4%
Bet quality High

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
ATM – BIL @ 3.80
+3.4%
Edge
Forecast →