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Home Spain La Liga Barcelona — Espanyol

Predictions Barcelona vs Espanyol April 11, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Barcelona
Barcelona
Home · last 5 W W L W L
Kick-off
Sat 11 Apr · 16:30
4:1
Full-time
Espanyol
Espanyol
L L W W D Away · last 5
Camp Nou · Barcelona Referee Alejandro Hernandez, Spain
Home Win · BAR
79%
Best 1.32
Draw
15%
Best 5.75
Away Win · ESP
6%
Best 8.70
Value pick
Draw
@ 7.50
Fair odds
6.73
book 7.50 · +11.4% vs market
Bookmakers polled
4
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 15% · EV +11.4%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (79%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 14.9%
Odds 7.50
Show model details
Implied probability 13.3%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 79%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 6.2%
Odds 12.00
Show model details
Implied probability 8.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Over 3.5
Probability 55.8%
Odds 1.79
Show model details
Implied probability 55.9%
Bet quality Low
Under 3.5
Probability 44.3%
Odds 2.18
Show model details
Implied probability 45.9%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 97.3%
Odds 1.02
Show model details
Implied probability 98%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 89.6%
Odds 1.09
Show model details
Implied probability 91.7%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 75.2%
Odds 1.29
Show model details
Implied probability 77.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 24.8%
Odds 3.75
Show model details
Implied probability 26.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 10.4%
Odds 8.50
Show model details
Implied probability 11.8%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 2.7%
Odds 29.00
Show model details
Implied probability 3.5%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 59.6%
Odds 1.70
Show model details
Implied probability 58.8%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 40.4%
Odds 2.31
Show model details
Implied probability 43.3%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 79%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 6.2%
Odds 6.10
Show model details
Implied probability 16.4%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 93.9%
Odds 1.07
Show model details
Implied probability 93.5%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 21%
Odds 4.30
Show model details
Implied probability 23.3%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
BAR – ESP @ 7.50
+11.4%
Edge
Forecast →