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Home Spain La Liga Real Madrid — Elche

Predictions Real Madrid vs Elche March 14, 2026 — Predictions and Probabilities

Spain   /   La Liga Value pick inside
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Home · last 5 W L W W W
Kick-off
Sat 14 Mar · 20:00
4:1
Full-time
Elche
Elche
L D L W D Away · last 5
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu · Madrid Referee Jesus Gil Manzano, Spain
Home Win · REA
79%
Best 1.30
Draw
15%
Best 5.98
Away Win · ELC
6%
Best 9.50
Value pick
Draw
@ 7.36
Fair odds
6.66
book 7.36 · +10.5% vs market
Bookmakers polled
3
distinct bookmakers
Pick confidence
Medium
p 15% · EV +10.5%

Value pick isn't the most likely outcome — Home Win is more likely (79%), but Draw is priced above the model's fair odds.

Match predictions

Simple model predictions for the main markets. Advanced model details are available below.

Most likely outcomes show what the model expects to happen. A betting pick also considers bookmaker prices, so it can differ from the most likely outcome.

Estimated probability — model's view. Implied probability — back-solved from the best book price. Bet quality: High Medium Low
FT Results 3 markets
Draw
Probability 15%
Odds 7.36
Show model details
Implied probability 13.6%
Bet quality Medium
Home Win Top pick
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.27
Show model details
Implied probability 78.7%
Bet quality Medium
Away Win
Probability 6.1%
Odds 12.00
Show model details
Implied probability 8.3%
Bet quality Low
Totals 8 markets
Under 3.5
Probability 54.4%
Odds 1.85
Show model details
Implied probability 54.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 3.5
Probability 45.6%
Odds 2.15
Show model details
Implied probability 46.5%
Bet quality Low
Under 2.5
Probability 32.9%
Odds 3.00
Show model details
Implied probability 33.3%
Bet quality Low
Over 2.5
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.45
Show model details
Implied probability 69%
Bet quality Low
Over 0.5 Best in group
Probability 96.3%
Odds 1.03
Show model details
Implied probability 97.1%
Bet quality Low
Over 1.5
Probability 84.7%
Odds 1.14
Show model details
Implied probability 87.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 1.5
Probability 15.3%
Odds 6.00
Show model details
Implied probability 16.7%
Bet quality Low
Under 0.5
Probability 3.7%
Odds 24.00
Show model details
Implied probability 4.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS 2 markets
BTTS Yes Best in group
Probability 51.5%
Odds 1.88
Show model details
Implied probability 53.2%
Bet quality Low
BTTS No
Probability 48.5%
Odds 1.96
Show model details
Implied probability 51%
Bet quality Low
Asian Handicap 2 markets
AH Home 0 Top pick
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.05
Show model details
Implied probability 95.2%
Bet quality Medium
AH Away 0
Probability 6.1%
Odds 6.45
Show model details
Implied probability 15.5%
Bet quality Low
Other Markets 2 markets
Double Chance 1X Top pick
Probability 93.9%
Odds 1.06
Show model details
Implied probability 94.3%
Bet quality Medium
Double Chance X2
Probability 21.2%
Odds 4.71
Show model details
Implied probability 21.2%
Bet quality Low

Predictions are model estimates based on data, not guaranteed outcomes. 18+ — please play responsibly.

Value pick of the night · Draw
REA – ELC @ 7.36
+10.5%
Edge
Forecast →