Match Valencia vs Osasuna March 1, 2026 — Result and Stats on Prognosist

Post-match · 90 sec read

AI picks Double Chance X2 at 1.62 — +8.0% better than the market.

Valencia hosts Osasuna in a clash where the visitors hold a slight quality edge and better recent form, suggesting a tactical upper hand. Valencia's defensive solidity faces a probing Osasuna attack, but home momentum and Mestalla's atmosphere could balance the scales. Expect a compact, cautious game with limited clear-cut chances.

Osasuna's pressing and recent consistency challenge Valencia's defense
Valencia's home resilience may blunt away offensive threats
Moderate pace likely given balanced goal expectations

P Recap generated by AI · 6 markets graded

Pick of the night · settled · Double Chance X2

Double Chance X2 @ 1.62 ✗ Lost

AI 67% Implied 62% −1.00u

−100%

ROI on stake

⛀ Lineups

VAL 4-4-2 · OSA 4-2-3-1

VAL · 4-4-2 4-2-3-1 · OSA

23 Ugrinić

Subs used · VAL

56'

Danjuma ↑ ·

Rioja ↓

77'

Tarrega ↑ ·

Ugrinic ↓

77'

Vazquez ↑ ·

Gaya ↓

90'

Lopez ↑ ·

Ramazani ↓

90'

Duro ↑ ·

Sadiq ↓

Subs used · OSA

74'

Garcia ↑ ·

Garcia ↓

81'

Cruz ↑ ·

Herrando ↓

81'

Gomez ↑ ·

Torro ↓

81'

Barja ↑ ·

Moro ↓

90+3'

Osambela ↑ ·

Moncayola ↓

📊 Statistics

VAL 1 – 0 OSA

48%

Possession (%)

52%

1.67

Expected Goals (xG) expected goals

0.31

Total Shots

Shots on Target

Shots off Target

Shots Inside Box

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

79%

Pass Accuracy (%)

82%

Yellow Cards

⏱ Match events

17 · 1 – 0

21'

▮

Valentin Rosier

Yellow Card

José Luis Gayà

Yellow Card

▮

30'

Half-time · 0 – 0

A. Danjuma ↓ · L. Rioja ↑

Substitution 1

⇄

56'

Eray Cömert

Yellow Card

▮

58'

65'

▮

Sergio Herrera

Yellow Card

L. Ramazani (P)

Penalty · 1–0

⚽

67'

74'

⇄

R. Garcia ↓ · R. Garcia ↑

Substitution 1

C. Tarrega ↓ · F. Ugrinic ↑

Substitution 2

⇄

77'

J. Vazquez ↓ · J. Gaya ↑

Substitution 3

⇄

77'

81'

⇄

J. Cruz ↓ · J. Herrando ↑

Substitution 2

81'

⇄

M. Gomez ↓ · L. Torro ↑

Substitution 3

81'

⇄

K. Barja ↓ · R. Moro ↑

Substitution 4

84'

▮

Moi Gómez

Yellow Card

D. Lopez ↓ · L. Ramazani ↑

Substitution 4

⇄

90'

H. Duro ↓ · U. Sadiq ↑

Substitution 5

⇄

90'

90+3'

⇄

A. Osambela ↓ · J. Moncayola ↑

Substitution 5

Thierry Correia

Yellow Card

▮

90+5'

Full-time · 1 – 0

Match recap

Valencia beat Osasuna 1–0 at home. At half-time it was 0–0.

On the balance of chances, the hosts held the expected-goals edge, 1.67 to 0.31. In attack, the hosts carried the greater threat — 14 shots to 8, 1 on target. For discipline, the referee produced 6 yellow cards.

On the scoresheet: L. Ramazani (67').

Model audit for this match: of 17 graded markets, 8 landed and 9 missed, for a net -2.39 units (Brier 0.217).

⚖ Bet recap · markets settled

17 · 8 W · 9 L

Market	Odds	Closed	AI	Result	P/L · 1u
Double Chance X2	1.62	—	67%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS No	1.92	—	53%	Cashed	+0.92	Cashed
Under 2.5	1.71	—	58%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
Over 2.5	2.32	—	42%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
BTTS Yes	1.93	—	47%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
AH Away 0	2.32	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Home Win	2.45	—	33%	Cashed	+1.45	Cashed
AH Home 0	1.71	—	33%	Cashed	+0.71	Cashed
Away Win	3.34	—	39%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 1.5	3.10	—	32%	Cashed	+2.10	Cashed
Over 1.5	1.42	—	68%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Double Chance 1X	1.38	—	61%	Cashed	+0.38	Cashed
Under 3.5	1.25	—	78%	Cashed	+0.25	Cashed
Over 0.5	1.09	—	89%	Cashed	+0.09	Cashed
Draw	3.30	—	28%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Under 0.5	8.50	—	11%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Over 3.5	4.20	—	22%	Lost	−1.00	Miss
Total · 17 markets @ 1u each	—	—	—	8 W · 9 L	−2.39u	−14% ROI